From Airports:USA DataMiner... Competitive Firepower(TM)

Unlike other sources of aviation data, DataMiner does not give you sloppy tables of poorly-formatted spreadsheet numbers, leaving the user to figure out what they mean. Airports:USA DataMiner is designed to be a powerful planning tool, providing competitive intelligence you can use immediately. Most DataMiner report columns are sortable on-screen, as well as downloadable to Excel, Word, or PDF formats. No other aviation data source is as comprehensive nor as easy to use.

To get more information and to subscribe to Airports:USA DataMiner - the new source of aviation competitive intelligence - Click Here.
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October 12, 2009
DataFlash
An Example of Analytical Firepower

The East Coast Shuttle -
Not The Gold Mine Many Assume

Subscribers to DataMiner are not captive to "what everbody knows" or to the ambient "knowledge" that often tends to permeate the media when it comes to airline trends and aviation intelligence. With DataMiner, they can check out the facts and separate them from the fluff.

One example is the scuttlebutt surrounding Southwest's entry to New York/LGA. Some of the usual suspects on the fringes of the aviation media have confidently predicted that WN would certainly be a perfect fit to take over one of the DCA-LGA-BOS east coast shuttles currently operated by either Delta or US Airways. "Their lower costs would be perfect," is the refrain, and, "shuttle service is how Southwest originally started, too." Check in to the 21st century, guys.

DataMiner subscribers don't have to accept this type of herd mentality. They can get the data. And when they do, they find a situation that would represent a colossal set of challenges for Southwest. We'll start with the traffic and revenue trends in the LGA-BOS and LGA-DCA markets:

Between 1Q 2008 and 1Q2009, passengers in the combined markets have dropped by almost a fourth, and that's even with a decline in average fares of nearly 10%. True, the average yields are very high. But, as DataMiner subscribers can ascertain with a couple of key strokes, the load factors are abominably low: for the same period, the LGA-BOS load factors were 44.1%, and the LGA-DCA flights came in at 42.1%. Maybe these might go up with a reduction in frequencies from hourly to, say, every two hours. But no guarantees - the reduction in frequencies could cause ridership to actually drop, too.

Even a basic understanding of scheduling and ship routing would point to any traditional shuttle in this region as being the equivalent of tossing expensive 737s into operational molasses.   Southwest has limited flights at LGA and BOS, and would have limited potential for expanding as a major player at DCA, so the concept of flowing shuttle aircraft into the rest of the carrier's system to increase utilization isn't likely. Furthermore, the delay issues at LGA and the East Coast in general are not going to get any better in the future.

There is the oft-heard comment that Southwest's low costs will allow for major fare cuts and huge market stimulation. When you hear that, run for cover, because it's from an entity that gets its aviation knowledge from a Ouija board. First, Southwest does not inherently have low costs. They keep their ASM costs down by high aircraft utilization - something that a DCA-LGA-BOS hourly shuttle doesn't represent. Second, these are business markets, which are much less subject to fare stimulation.

Finally, these markets are reflecting a trend that's been manifesting in Eastern US air commuter markets for the last 15 years: a fundamental decline in demand. Between the fares necessary to support the costs of hourly service, ATC delays, the hassles of going through security, the core demand has plummeted in the past decade. These are markets that did not recover after 9/11, having dropped consistently each year from 3.6 million passengers in 2000 to 2.6 million in 2008, and it's a trend that's continuing.

Bottom line: there's no telling the future with 100% accuracy. But given the high costs of operation, the low aircraft utilization, and the fact that the economics of an hourly shuttle don't work like they used to, it doesn't look like a prudent expansion opportunity for anyone, including Southwest.

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August 31, 2009
DataFlash
An Example of Analytical Firepower

Top Ten O&D Markets

DataMiner has more features, more depth, and more Analytical Firepower(TM) than any other source of aviation data. Anywhere. At any price. Depending on the range of options, our subscribers can access traffic, fare, market and airline data. Plus the most comprehensive airline operational and financial data available. With just a couple of keystrokes, you can have a report on the screen that other sources either would require lots of translation, or couldn't produce at all.

As a quick example, here are the top ten US O&D markets. The report comes right to the screen, along with the corollary data that makes further analysis quick and easy.

And unlike other sources, Boyd Group International's DataMiner information is reviewed and scrubbed for errors. It isn't just downloaded - or, worse, purchased from another vendor - and passed on as-is. The O&D is reconciled to assure the greatest accuracy possible.

It's another reason that more and more airlines, airports, labor groups, suppliers and financial institutions are turning to DataMiner as their source of aviation insight. They understand the competitive advantage of having better information. To join them, click below for a free trial.

July 20, 2009
DataFlash
An Example of Analytical Firepower

Checking Out Industry Lore
Using DataMiner

Yes, Virginia. Southwest Is A Hubbing Airline

Southwest Denver Traffic
It's Dependent on Connecting Passengers

Staying ahead of the crowd means not becoming a part of it. That's what sets DataMiner subscribers apart. They don't accept the consensus, and they don't take at face value the regurgitated aviation data that some vendors pass off as accurate. Most importantly, they're well informed because DataMiner delivers the most accurate information possible.

With all the current news swirling around the Southwest offer for Frontier, one of the oft-repeated tenets is that "Southwest is a point-to-point carrier.." or "It's uncertain how long it would take Southwest to convert Frontier into the linear, point-to-point system used so successfully by the Dallas-based carrier..."

This is the type of me-too drivel put out by some in the media who wouldn't know Southwest Airlines from Southern Pacific Railroad. It's lore - lore that gets repeated so often, the level of repetition is the "source" behind the story.

It's true that Southwest does a lot of point-to-point flying. But if you isolate out Las Vegas and some Florida markets, what's left is a very efficient hubbing system.

The table from Airports:USA DataMiner indicates the percent of WN passengers in each nonstop Denver market it operates. Some, like LAS, MCO and PHX have relatively low levels of passengers connecting at DEN. That's because WN has nonstops to those points from many of the other cities in its system.  But then take a look at Nashville, Chicago, Kansas City and BWI. Southwest's Denver nonstops to those points are entirely dependent on connecting traffic. (Reference the load factors to get an idea.)

Even nonstop markets from Denver with comparatively low levels of flow traffic likely could not stand on their own with out connections. DEN-AUS, for example - one third of passengers on board are connecting from other WN flights at Denver. Without that feed subsidy, the market would simply not work.

These types of analyses are possible with DataMiner. Obviously, they are impossible to accomplish from printed quarterly statistics - particularly the ones just downloaded raw from the DOT and reprinted.

Another advantage of DataMiner is that it's live on-line, and kept updated. For example, the DOT recently issued substantial revisions to 4Q O&D data. It's on-line and available to DataMiner subscribers.

To get the competitive edge, click below for a free trial subscription.

This is another reason DataMiner is the new Analytical Firepower tool used by aviation professionals. Log on below to join your colleagues who are benefiting from a trial subscription.

July 20, 2009
DataFlash
An Example of Analytical Firepower

Interpreting O&D With DataMiner

Just taking O&D data at a given airport is not necessarily indicative of the airport's real air service demand. Air service patterns at a community are shaped by the airline capacity and service offered. In some cases, it can be very misleading.

Here, we've queried DataMiner for the top O&D markets at Peoria for the 4Q of 2008...

The data would indicate that Las Vegas, Phoenix/Mesa and St. Petersburg are the biggest demand markets at PIA. But that depends on how one defines "demand."  In this case, all of the AZA and PIE traffic is generated by Allegiant, which is not in the business of filling air service needs, per se, but in diverting local discretionary dollars into high-value vacation packages. That's the case with PIE and AZA. A quick query into DataMiner for the market shares of traffic to LAS shows that over 85% of this traffic is carried by Allegiant.

This gives insight into what markets, absent strong ancillary vacation packages, are the top destinations for Peoria. For planning purposes at PIA, it's clear that DFW, LGA, and DTW are its real top consumer air travel destinations.

This is another reason DataMiner is the new Analytical Firepower tool used by aviation professionals. Log on below to join your colleagues who are benefiting from a trial subscription.

July 13, 2009
DataFlash
An Example of Analytical Firepower

Market Load Factors By Carrier Brand
... And By Aircraft Type

Subscribers to Airports:USA DataMiner are not saddled with static pages of numbers that have been simply regurgitated from raw DOT tables. That's even more of an advantage because DataMiner on-line information relates to what's really going on at airports, airlines and in key markets. Printed, raw data doesn't.

Some data vendors are not very airline-literate, and don't understand that airline brands are comprised typically of more than one "certificated carrier," but that's how the data are still reported to DOT. The result is that load factor data are incomplete for key carriers. For example, if Delta shifts some capacity in the DTW-JAX market to its Compass subsidiary or to Mesaba, traditional T-100 data won't reflect it, except separately, by "certificated carrier." For airports interested in local air carrier performance, it's of no interest whether the airline is operating the market with its own mainline aircraft, or with leased-in lift, or a combination. It's the brand that consumers are using that counts.

This is the reason Airports:USA DataMiner is the new dimension in Analytical Firepower. It not only has the capability of providing subscribers load factor data aggregated by airline brand, but allows them to immediately perform further analyses to isolate market factors and trends.

Here, we've pulled down American Airlines' 4Q 2008 load factors at New York/LaGuardia. The table is by market, and with a click of the mouse it gives load factors in each market by aircraft type operated. We've isolated two markets that are of interest...

The AA LGA-MIA market is pulled out to show how DataMiner will immediately provide load factors by aircraft operated, and gives a clear picture of fleet applications for the time period chosen. (The actual on-line report provides both inbound and outbound on-board passengers and seats. We've truncated it here to just totals.)

The LGA-XNA load factors were pulled down by aircraft type to get a view of the market viability. Note that the majority of the flights were operated with ERJ-135s, which at just 37 seats, are very ASM-costly. A quick review of DataMiner O&D reports (not shown) demonstrated that the average yield is a whopping 29.1 cents, which is hefty on a 1,150 segment. (The reason is that this is a Wal-Mart route.) We then queried the Aircraft Performance Module of DataMiner, and the findings are that at any fuel price over roughly $1.80 a gallon, XNA-LGA is basically a red-ink sop for Wal-Mart's business. AA in 2008 decided it wasn't worth the retail chain's good will to keep flying XNA-LAX at a loss. Strategically, the same may be in the cards for XNA-LGA.

That entire analysis was accomplished in not much more than 90 seconds.  Try that with a clunky and inaccurate printed report, especially when one of those subscriptions can cost a lot more than on-line DataMiner.

Click below for a free trial to get Analytical Firepower on your computer. And toss those printed quarterly reports into the trash.

July 6, 2009
DataFlash
An Example of Analytical Firepower

Major Sky-Changes At Southwest
... Flights Have Been Reduced At 90% of Airports It Serves

One of the key advantages of Airports:USA DataMiner over other sources is that it provides a wide menu of metric-options that can be tailored to the subscriber's exact market intelligence needs. Sharp aviation professionals understand that relying on "the consensus" or on spoutings from some stock-peddlers on Wall Street is a great way to get caught competitively short.

One of the metric options available is Live Schedules. Updated and sorted weekly from data from our partner Innovata LLC, this option keeps subscribers in immediate contact with airline schedule shifts. Aviation planners can use this information to make informed decisions - not rough guesses - in regard to emerging airline strategies.

For one example, DataMiner compared departures and system capacity for Southwest in January 2008 , compared to what the carrier currently has filed for October 2009. The data immediately show that WN is shifting strategies - and it's a lot more than the uninformed nonsense some in the media spit out about WN no longer avoiding big-city airports. Fact is, they never had any such strategy, per se. Their broad strategy was to enter markets where they could grab or create high passenger volumes fairly quickly,  whether that meant entering Los Angeles International, or Jackson, or Tampa, or Detroit.

And as for "inroads" being made by LCCs that some are claiming, such might be the case on Mars, but not on this planet. Here are some fun points regarding WN that might not set well with the rearview-mirror analyst crowd:

• Total capacity: down 8.0%. And this is just as of the schedules filed effective June 26. More reductions for fall flying are not out of the question.

• WN Departures are down at 90% of the airports they serve. Nothing is sacred. These cuts are funding the aircraft necessary to open LGA, MSP, and BOS. plus build up schedules at Denver, where Southwest has seen really tough going competing with Frontier. (Sorry, veneer-analysts. Southwest competition was not the reason that Frontier got shoved into Chapter 11. It was its credit card processor, which suddenly withheld millions from a scheduled payment, responding to undocumented and false rumors spread by don't-bother-with-facts Wall Street types, and sloppy me-too media stories babbling that Frontier couldn't compete.). 

• Nine Southwest cities will see big cuts - 20% or more in WN departures. One - PBI - will have almost a third of its Southwest flights go to schedule-heaven.

• Main growth focus: Denver, where WN has adjusted its schedules over the past year to increase through and connecting traffic over DEN.

These data are derived and analyzed from our partner, Innovata, LLC, and are just another example of how DataMiner is a professional planning and analysis tool - one that keeps our subscribers ahead of the competition. Just as DataMiner clearly is.

For more information, and a free trial for qualified companies, click below.

June 15, 2009
DataFlash
An Example of Analytical Firepower

Lots Of Things You Always Wanted To Know About Fargo
... But Didn't Have A Professional Data Source To Ask

Airports:USA DataMiner gives our airport subscribers the ability to look beyond the surface numbers and analyze factors that may have a material effect on their air service.

In this case, we randomly selected Fargo, North Dakota. We wanted to ascertain how well two competing carriers were doing - in this case Frontier and United in the FAR-DEN market for the third and fourth quarters of 2008.

First, we quickly ascertained the relative position of each carrier brand in regard to key data:

Note that DataMiner correctly allocates passenger traffic to the proper carrier system. It knows that United leases in lift from SkyWest for its Fargo service. It knows that Northwest Airlines operates with three leased-in operators, plus its own aircraft. Notice that DataMiner doesn't misreport the data by dumping these passengers into a "commuter" category, but instead allocates them to the proper airline system that's booking the passengers and selling the tickets. (That's from a marketing perspective. And from a regulatory perspective, DOT rules consider passengers on Compass-operated aircraft, for example, to be flying under Northwest's contract of carriage. So reporting such data as "commuters" not only understates Northwest traffic, but is also simply not consistent with the fundamental structure of the US airline industry.)

Next, we pulled a DataMiner Hub Contribution Report for Fargo. Honing in on just Frontier, and on United's Denver service, we took a look at the top ten connect markets for each carrier over Denver International.

Some key data were illuminated: United commands much higher yields in all flow markets over Frontier. On average, by 19% - and over 25% in the FAR-PHX market.  That brought us to considering how each carrier was doing on a per flight basis. So we checked load factors and aircraft types operated.

This is another reason raw data can be misleading. On the surface, the United flights are doing much better from the perspective of percentage of seats filled. But Frontier is actually carrying more passengers on a per-flight basis.

Conclusions from this DataMiner exercise: Frontier's doing well at FAR, and so is United. Frontier has yield opportunities, while at 85% load factors, it's likely that United was spilling traffic in these quarters, with only 50-seats per flight. If we wanted to go further, we could go to the Airline Financial Module of DataMiner and compare aircraft-specific cost factors for each carrier on the route. And for our consulting clients, Boyd Group International has the capability of quickly accomplishing Sector Profitability Analyses for every carrier at Fargo. Or any other airport, for that matter. DataMiner is professional Analytical Firepower, not just regurgitated DOT numbers.

Final point: The above data was pulled, formatted, and analyzed from Airports:USA DataMiner in under ten minutes. Well under. Fast access to reliable data is a key advantage of DataMiner.

We'd be happy to provide a trial subscription to Airports:USA DataMiner to qualified candidates. Click below to get started with professional aviation data.

May 18, 2009
DataFlash
An Example of Analytical Firepower

Compare Competitive Airline Market Shares

Airports:USA DataMiner allows analysis of how airlines are doing in markets where they directly compete for local O&D passengers.

In this simple example, we looked at the market share, fares, and other data comparing how AA and UA are performing in the Denver - Chicago/O'Hare market, for the 4Q of 2008.

Since we queried Denver as the key airport, the trip origination data relate to Denver. There are some interesting figures here, one being that United enjoys a 36% yield premium in the market, as well as having much stronger brand loyalty among Denver consumers. This is not surprising in that it is the dominant hubbing carrier at Denver.

This report is very flexible and can be customized quickly and easily. For example, the three NYC metro airports can be entered, and the report will show the market capture by the specific airlines you choose for each airport, and for the total NYC basin represented. (Note that the example above has been truncated - the actual report provides much more extensive information.)

If you'd like to see more examples of the types of reports Airports:USA DataMiner can generate, click here.

May 4, 2009
Snapshot:
An Example of Analytical Firepower

Map It With DataMiner

One of the unique features of Airports:USA DataMiner is its mapping capability. Schedule data, fleets, even fare-determined maps can be generated by DataMiner.

American Airlines (Eagle) ERJ Flights At LGA, June 15, 2009

As one simple example, we asked DataMiner to show us the markets where American Eagle scheduled ERJs for June 15, 2009. In a few seconds, the map appears. We can also ask for all AA-brand nonstops that day, or for the month, week, or year. Or, maybe just the MD-80 flying for that day - for AA only or for all airlines at LGA. DataMiner accesses tables from our partner, Innovata, LLC, and translates them into maps that can be downloaded into reports immediately.

This is just another feature that makes DataMiner the new standard in aviation information. Whatever other source you may be using, it's so yesterday. Click below to get on-line with a trial subscription, and join the aviation leaders who rely on the best data available - Airports:USA DataMiner.

April  13, 2009
Snapshot:
An Example of Analytical Firepower

The LaGuardia-Chicago Market With Southwest

Having hard data at your fingertips can provide the accurate planning data and information needed to make sound planning decisions. It also can provide a better understanding of trends in the industry.

The Southwest entry to LGA has been accessorized with a huge amount of hype and reporting that have little basis in fact. That's where DataMiner comes in. Accessing the June 28 schedules filed with our partner Innovata, LLC, we quickly were able to download the data and prepare a fast analysis of what Southwest will be facing when they come to town.

Note that as of last Wednesday, Southwest has not filed its LGA-MDW schedules. But we know they plan five daily flights. Quickly downloading the table from DataMiner to a spreadsheet, it was easy to incorporate the WN data, and determine key metrics regarding where the carrier will stand in the market. Note that DataMiner provides the daily schedule by airline and by aircraft type.

What this analysis clearly indicates is that with slots for just 5 daily flights, Southwest isn't going to be a dominant player in the local LGA-Chicago market. There are 44 other nonstops to Chicago from LaGuardia every business day. From this, it is clear that the carrier is looking beyond just the local O&D. While the head-to-head Delta service to MDW is operated with higher ASM cost E-175s, these are mainline-cabin aircraft with seats wider than those on WN's 737s. The unknown is whether Delta will stand and fight on a routing with no feed at either end, relying on DL brand-loyalty in the NYC area, or whether they'll drop the service. The betting is that they will stay. Boyd Group International has accomplished a Research Review of this market, which can be accessed by clicking here.

This table is another example of the fast analytical power that DataMiner delivers. If you're not yet a subscriber, just request a free trial and find out how it can deliver for you. To get you started, we'll even include an on-line live tour and training session. Give Bill Oliver a call at (303) 674-2000.

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April 6, 2009
Snapshot:
An Example of Analytical Firepower

Using DataMiner To Analyze Airline Strategies
... And To Identify Future Potential Market Moves

Airports:USA DataMiner is NOT about reports. It is not about numbers, either. Instead, it's an analytical system that lets subscribers access a range of tools to deeply review and identify emerging trends and strategies in the airline industry. Utilizing the power of the various components of DataMiner gives the user an enormous competitive advantage, not to mention a clear understanding of emerging trends and how to deal with them..

But The Route Was Profitable, Right? Airlines usually make market decisions based on hard dollars and sense. The range of data components available in the Airports:USA system gives financial analysts, planners, and airport marketing directors the tools they need to drill down and identify markets - not to mention entire airline strategies - that may be in the crosshairs of change.

Let's Use DataMiner To Analyze An Airline Route Decision
And, More Importantly, What This Decision Strategically Represents

As an example, Delta just ceased service at Lawton, Oklahoma, where they had operated two CRJs daily to Atlanta. The question whether this represents a new shift in Delta's hub-feed strategy, or is it a one-off market decision.

To determine this, we accessed four Airports:USA components - the Hub Connect/Contribution report, the local Airline O&D Report, the T-100 report, and finally the Aircraft Cost Analyzer. In less than 15 minutes, we had the answers as to why Delta made the move. More importantly, we had a greater insight regarding other markets where Delta may eliminate, reduce, or even add capacity in the coming months,

Analysis One: Was Delta Filling Those RJs At Lawton? Maybe DL yanked its RJ flights because they weren't carrying anybody. Using the Airports:USA T-100 system, a couple of keystrokes revealed that that for the full year 2008, Delta had a better load factor at LAW than did the American brand, which is the only other daily scheduled passenger operator at Lawton.  (63.8% v American Eagle's 59.3%) Not stellar, but not wildly out of line with other ATL feed markets. So, we know they had passengers. Note that DataMiner provides actual load factors and operations by aircraft type. These data proved important later (like, about 2 minutes later) in the analysis.

Analysis Two: Was Delta Feeding It's System? And At What Yields? We then turned to the Hub Connect/Contribution report in the Airports:USA system. There, we quickly discovered the passengers, revenues, yields, and net fares that each carrier was feeding to/from Lawton to points beyond their respective connecting hubs.

From a per-passenger revenue-generation perspective, Lawton looks like a gold mine.

Indeed, from that perspective Delta was, at least at first pass, doing gang-busters. Here, for brevity, we're just showing the top ten flow points for each carrier, but an average yield across the hub of almost 23 cents is outstanding. Incrementally, this route would seem to have performed well for Delta. True, they were carrying fewer passengers than AA, but that's a function of a more limited schedule. Totaling the flow revenue for each carrier, American was generating $24.2 million beyond DFW at Lawton. Delta's much more limited schedule generated $5.3 million beyond Atlanta. So the revenue generation is strong at Lawton.

Analysis Three: Okay. But What's This Traffic Feed Costing Them? But a sector operating cost analysis proved that in hard financial reality, LAW-ATL was a dog.

The reason - "hang time" to access this traffic. For American, it's just a 140-mile segment - about 55 minutes of scheduled block time - to access the feed that Lawton offers. But for Delta, it meant hanging an RJ in the sky for over two hours, covering 802 miles - and then only with a 63% load factor. That, based on two daily round-trips, was the equivalent of one entire aircraft dedicated to ATL-LAW. We then accessed the Aircraft Operating Cost database in Airports:USA, and applied the data to the specific aircraft and segments operated by each carrier (as shown in the T-100 report) for the year 2008 at Lawton. The findings were revealing.

It cost the American system, based on the actual flights and aircraft they operated at LAW during the year, about $3.5 million to access approximately $24 million in flow revenue (this from the Hub Connect/Contribution Report). Delta, again based on the actual flights and aircraft operated, spent almost $8.5 million flying to LAW, all to access only approximately $5.3 million in flow revenues.

Separate from this specific analysis, we very quickly queried the Airports:USA Airline-Specific O&D data for LAW, and relating it to the airport enplanements, we were able to get a picture of the flow traffic rates for each carrier at LAW. American is about 85% flow (connecting) passengers. Delta was approximately 50% flow. American only has to toss an airplane for 50-55 minutes each way to get this feed. Delta had to fly twice as long to get it.

So, What Does This Tell Us About Delta? And The Industry? Plenty. First, it's an indication that with oil again exceeding $50, the amount of RJ hang time for each market out of a carrier's hubsite is going to come under serious scrutiny once again. Second, it illuminates the tough situation airports like Lawton are facing - the number of viable, economically-accessible airline hubsites are limited. For LAW, this would mean that UA/DEN isn't a likely replacement. It also means that CO/IAH is the only real alternative left for additional Eastern access. But even here, it would mostly just duplicate what AA offers at DFW.  Conclusion: for full air service connectivity, LAW - by virtue of geography, its market size, and airline economics - is tethered for the foreseeable future to the only reasonably close hubsite gateway - American/DFW.

Other Intelligence, Too. But DataMiner has also illuminated what a key strength that LAW can leverage in the future. The Hub Connect/Contribution Report clearly identified that the spread of destinations beyond ATL and DFW is highly military-centric. Traffic generated by Ft. Sill to/from other military-centric points such as ELP, SAT, and PHF (just for starters) is a strong indicator of where further air service development and marketing intelligence will be valuable in the future, i.e., closely watching future projects developed at the Department of Defense that could affect the activities and scope at Fort Sill.

Click Below & Get The Heavy Planning Artillery. We used Lawton only as an example. This same analysis could be accomplished for LaGuardia. Or Omaha. Or Detroit. Or Duluth. Any airport. This is just one simple example of how the various components of Airports:USA DataMiner give our subscribers enormous and cost-efficient analytical firepower. As noted, with the fast on-line convenience of Airports:USA, all of these analytical steps took less than 15 minutes, but revealed a wealth of important planning information.

Try that with those static, error-prone printed "quarterly report" products. For probably less than some consultants charge for such regurgitated numbers, you can have Airports:USA DataMiner. Request a free trial and see.

 From The Airports:USA 2009-2014 Enplanement Forecasts:

March 30, 2009
Snapshot:
An Airports:USA Traffic Analysis

Las Vegas - The Slide May Get Worse
But It Will Recover More Quickly Than The Nation As A Whole

Since 1992, Airports:USA has been the only enplanement forecast source published entirely independently in the private sector. Covering 146 of the nation's airports, representing over 95% of all passenger traffic, the forecast provides year by year projections for each facility, along with clear discussions of the dynamics that will drive enplanements.

Boyd Group International is now reviewing the current Airports:USA enplanement forecasts for LAS. The existing forecast is shown on the chart, but recent news from Las Vegas, plus the consumer uncertainty regarding any economic direction from Washington may combine to push the baseline forecast closer to the low forecast. This would indicate as much as 1.6 million fewer enplanements in 2010 than currently envisioned.

Local Originations At Risk? Boyd Group International analyses indicate extreme forecast volatility for McCarren, due to uncertainty of the national economy, Administration financial policies, and the range of airline industry capacity issues for the next 36 months. Adding to this are signs that the local economy - which generates approximately 20% of traffic at LAS - is facing a near stop in the dynamics that the region has been sailing on for the past decade. As an example, the MGM City Center project - saved from bankruptcy only after MGM paid both it and its Dubai-based partner's debt payment over the week-end - represented 8,000 high-paying jobs that could have evaporated. This is an indication that local traffic generation may atrophy in the coming year.

On the inbound side, the off-the-cuff comment by President Obama that businesses had best avoid meetings in Las Vegas had, and may continue to have, a chilling effect on future convention volume. Nevertheless, even in the High Forecast scenario, Boyd Group International Global Fleet Demand Forecasts indicate no major increase in net-new US carrier capacity, and therefore no strong probability of a return to 2007 LAS enplanement levels in 2009-2010. However, LAS is an indicator of the economy - when disposable dollars come back into play, the trend will first manifest at Las Vegas. Therefore, while the current situation indicates declines, the High forecast may need to be reviewed should the "stimulus" package rammed through Congress actually have any effects on the consumer.

Forecasts are updated consistently as events take place which would have a material effect on each and any of the 146 airports in the forecast. This is just one example of the forecasts in Airports:USA. For more information, and to subscribe, click here.
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March 23, 2009
Snapshot:
An Airports:USA Traffic Analysis
Year 2008 - The Good Old Days

This week, we provide a review of the top 15 domestic O&D markets for the 3Q of 2008 v the year-earlier period. The responses to escalating oil prices were taking hold, with yields up, capacity down, and load factors gaining.

Note that the rankings and the markets themselves shifted year over year, but the message is clear: net fare was up a strong 29% from the top ten O&D markets, and while total passengers were down, revenues were up 11%. To be sure, these data are affected by the major shifts in average unit fares in intra- Hawaii markets - up over 80%. But nevertheless, these key markets are a strong indicator of the direction the industry was headed. Combine this information with the rapidly-declining price of jet fuel, and things were looking up. Then came November and a recession-driven plunge in traffic demand. Year 2009 data are unfolding very differently - as of February, most of the 20% increase in yield has now been erased.

These data are typical of the competitive information and insight provided by Airports:USA DataMiner. For a free trial, click on the button at the top.

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March 16, 2009
Snapshot:
An Airports:USA Traffic Analysis
CVG: Delta Doesn't Dominate Enplanements.
It Creates Them.

Hardly a month goes by without some lightweight media "analysis" of fare reports issued by the BTS, comparing fares across the nation, usually without much in-depth understanding of the numbers.

Last month, Forbes issued a laughable "expose" on small  "rip-off" airports where fares are higher than larger ones. It was a sloppy, poorly researched, and amateur piece of journalistic garbage not worthy of further discussion. But there are material differences in the per-mile fares paid between cities, mostly due to hard economic factors such as market size, cost of the equipment that fits the market, and, yes, competition.

One darling of media reports on fares is Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International. Without question, CVG does have higher fares, and the usual veneer conclusion is that Delta is somehow holding the airport and the surrounding region at the point of a gun, shaking consumers down as they go through security. The reality is much different. From third quarter 2008, we queried Airports:USA DataMiner to determine average CVG fares compared to other airports, both hubsite and non-hubsite.

The first conclusion is that CVG is still fortunate that it has a major Delta connecting hub operation. The local traffic component - which is essential to supporting connecting flights - is disturbingly low. Even Milwaukee - which barely has the remnants of a Midwest Airlines hub - generates almost 75% more local passengers than does CVG. It's a simple issue of local population. Every other hubsite airport east of the Mississippi (and, actually, west of it, too) has a larger local consumer base.

Fares Are Higher For A Reason. And, yes, the average local fares, expressed in yield per mile, are much higher than at other hubsite airports. The reason goes back to the size issue - those other airports are located in metro areas that generate massively higher local O&D. Take a look at Airports:USA 3Q 2008 data:

The much-smaller local population base means that Delta needs to operate the CVG hub with smaller units of capacity - i.e., a much higher percentage of RJ flights. In the 3Q, 57% of all scheduled departures were with non-mainline equipment. (Flights operated with Embraer E-Jets were included in mainline operations.)

Let's Kill The Hub And Cut Our Economic Throats. But one key economic point missed by most of the fare-focused media reports is the enormously stronger air access that CVG has compared to much larger markets. Having nonstops to more destinations gives the region an advantage in attracting and keeping new business investment. The estimated daily nonstop destinations for the 3Q gives a pretty compelling picture:

Note that CVG has much stronger nonstop access to the nation (as well as some international service) - due entirely to the Delta hub - than do other much larger markets. (Boston has an additional 13 EAS destinations, which don't do much for economic development - nor, for that matter, in adding to enplanements.) But having more nonstop destinations is the trade-off between higher local fares at CVG and the economic growth that the Delta hub delivers. To be sure, Delta may need to adjust CVG in the future. But without the connecting hub, Boyd Group International estimates that CVG could support nonstop service to less than 32 cities, most being other connecting hubsites.

No DL Hub - No Demand Vacuum, Either. The other message here is that all of the other airports on the non-hubsite list above have, or will have, Southwest service. WN is now focused on entering large local-traffic markets, such as Boston - which generates almost 500% more daily passengers than does CVG. What this indicates is that the folks who predict a Southwest CVG entry if Delta pulls down its hub might want to sharpen their pencils a bit more.

As an example, Southwest likely entered PIT, which is more than 2X the size of CVG, mostly because it was a necessary anchor-spoke for its market position at Philadelphia. With less than 5K local passengers per day each way, CVG is not a particularly attractive target for Southwest. Certainly, the argument might be made that the "Southwest Effect" would cause local traffic to skyrocket.

Not to any great extent. First, CVG is surrounded with markets that already have WN and/or low fare service, so the concept of drawing in reverse-leakage from other cities doesn't come into play here. Second, while there is some CVG traffic now leaking away due to fares, it's not likely to be sufficient to materially increase local enplanements enough to get to WN's current apparent traffic hurdle, which is much higher than in the past. Third, with service at CMH, IND and SDF, WN is already nibbling at the edges of the CVG outer catchment areas. That means some of what it might capture with CVG entry is traffic it already has.

While there are no guarantees either way, the current economic imperatives and current strategies at WN do not at the moment bode well for CVG entry. There's no harm in banging on the door at the airline, because things can change, maybe. But it would be a push to get them into town in the current environment. And finally, even with WN, the loss of the Delta hub would mean loss of enormous amounts of nonstop service, and a hit to the economic impact of the airport to the region. Today, with the DL hub, CVG is an incredibly important part of the regional economic infrastructure. The point is that criticism of Delta's investment is very ill-advised.

Want To Learn More? Give Us A Call. These data represent the clear analytical insight that Airports:USA DataMiner can bring to bear. At Boyd Group International, it's our competitive edge. It can be yours, too. Check it out.

March 9, 2009
Snapshot:
Getting Hammered, As A Matter of Fact...
United Suffers, Not Frontier
From Southwest Denver Entry

DataMiner allows the subscriber to quickly pull reports which can give enormous competitive intelligence regarding success or failure of carrier strategies at a given airport.

For example, we reviewed the effects of Southwest's entry into the Denver market. We pulled the airport share report for the 1st Q of 2003, and for the 3rd Q of 2008. The data is instructive, and runs very counter to the lightweight assumptions that Frontier would be easy meat for Southwest.

The data clearly show that it's United, not Frontier, that's been clobbered by Southwest. Instead of Frontier being squeezed in the middle, as some veneer comments from Wall Street indicated, it's clear that United has given up enormous market share. Southwest has gained nearly 18% of the Denver market, and Frontier increased its share from 15% to over 22%.

United: Deer In Competitive Headlights? Meanwhile, the United brand plummeted from almost 45% of the market to 32.9%. This loss of share equates to almost 3 million annual Denver passengers - and that's traffic lost to other carriers, particularly WN and Frontier. It's even more glaring that during this period, United was touting it's ridiculous "Ted" scheme - an alleged WN response. In fact, it was nothing more than some re-painted airplanes, not a stand-alone operation.

In addition to countering the data-less musings of some Wall Street analysts, the data also show that United may be in much deeper strategic difficulty than it may appear. It has been clobbered by Southwest in one of its most important hub cities. It has no current fleet renewal program. It is dangerously shrinking its mainline fleet and replacing the lift with high-cost leased-in RJ flying. In fact, while American has a mainline fleet plan of @ 650 airliners, and a substantial renewal plan, United is heading for a mainline fleet of around 375 airliners, and not one new plane on order. Combine this with the "Ted" fiasco, and it's becoming clear that United is getting some very strange strategic advice and leadership.

Get The Jump On The Competition. Get DataMiner... This type of strategic competitive intelligence is unique to Airports:USA DataMiner. We can tailor a subscription package to your specific needs, whether it be traffic data, fleet data, financial tables, or forecasts, the DataMiner program is ready. Give us a call or click the box below for a trial subscription.

February 23, 2009
Snapshot:
Airline System Load Factors - November 2008
Recognizing That "Certificated Carrier" Does Not Necessarily Mean "Airline"

The T-100 module available at Airports:USA DataMiner provides an array of key analytical reports that give immediate insight which other data sources miss entirely.

For example, with a couple of keystrokes, DataMiner generated a report giving load factors by airline system. It can be done by month, or a combination of months, and it can be done by airline division, such as Atlantic, Pacific, Domestic, etc, depending on how the carrier reports. It can also be accessed by type of aircraft within each airline system. It is a quick and powerful tool.

Note that his is a system load factor report - one that gives the entire picture for an airline brand.

One of the fatal accuracy flaws in some other sources of aviation data - particularly some of those printed quarterly subscriptions - is that they fail completely to recognize the real structure of the airline industry. DOT data is reported by certificated carrier, and some of these sources simply do not have the expertise to understand that "certificated carrier" is not the same as "airline system."

For example, SkyWest reports as a certificated carrier. Yet SkyWest effectively has no passengers of its own, since it exclusively operates providing lift under the brand of United, Delta, or Midwest. The fact is that a consumer can't book a seat on SkyWest - because they aren't an airline, but more correctly a leasing company. Unfortunately, some other aviation data sources don't understand this, and report traffic carried by SkyWest, or Mesaba, or Air Wisconsin as independent, stand-alone "commuters" when they are in fact part of a major carrier system. The result is that traffic is not aggregated accurately to the airline brand that's selling the seats and booking the passengers. This type of inaccurate reporting is particularly egregious at smaller airports.

Airports:USA DataMiner's sophisticated software addresses this, properly sorting and aggregating passengers to the correct carrier system. One example is the Brand Load Factor Report - shown here for November 2008

Note that the program sorts out traffic that Mesa carries for United, Delta, and America West from that it carries under its own YV code, which is mostly the go! operation in Hawaii. SkyWest-reported traffic is allocated to the major carrier leasing its lift, at each city it flies to. Ditto for Pinnacle, Colgan and Air Wisconsin.

This is just one of the reasons Airports:USA is far more cost-effective than other data sources. That's because bad data, regardless of the price, is prohibitively expensive.

February 9, 2009
Snapshot:
Virgin America A Major Transcon Player

One of the competitive advantages that DataMiner provides is the ability to identify emerging trends and market shifts - well before the competition does.

One example is the emergence of Virgin America as a major transcon airline. Now that it is reporting traffic and fare data, one might assume that some scrutiny would be given to how this new entrant has been doing. But without the quick-data and quick-report capability of DataMiner, that's hard to do. Other aviation data sources just give data - and maybe some clunky spreadsheet downloads that require extensive time and re-work to deliver any real insight.

DataMiner is different - with a couple of quick keystrokes we have an analysis report of market share in the JFK-LAX market, giving capture rates, fares, yields, and more. Here are data for the four airlines that carry approximately 98% of the JFK-LAX market.

For brevity, we truncated additional columns that show gross and net revenues by carrier, trip origination, and a few other valuable metrics that are immediately displayed with this report. Subscribers can down load this data to spreadsheets and other software and even map it as well.

It's clear that VX is now a major player in this market - nearly equal in capture to Delta, and far ahead of United.

Data Is Just The Start. Understanding It Is The Key. Remember, Airports:USA DataMiner is a professional aviation resource, and is designed to be used by those who know and understand the industry and its general trends. For example, the average fare in the market between carriers varies wildly - from Virgin's $262 to United's $661. In the hands of an amateur, (say to a cub reporter who wouldn't know the difference between an economy cabin and a Greyhound bus), the conclusion might be that United (and to a lesser extent, American) do much better at pricing.

The real explanation demands an understanding of airline strategies. In bankruptcy, United dumped many of its 767-200s. In transcon markets, they, in effect, just moved the premium seats onto 757s, and cut out many of the economy seats. The result is that United has more dependence on premium-cabin passengers - which is one reason its JFK-LAX share is a paltry 12.6% today. Take a look at market revenue - Delta has literally double the market share, but the about the same revenue share as does United. The reason is corporate strategy in regard to product placement. American also has a higher average fare than VX, too, because it has far more premium seats per flight than do Delta and VX.

Now, comparing system ASM costs for VX (scroll down to last week's DataFlash), their 9.5 cent yield represents a challenge for the carrier. They obviously have a cost issue to deal with. But they don't have the usual problem that killed many other start-ups: lack of passengers. By the way, Airports:USA DataMiner subscribers have another fast analytical report: the November T-100. There, they'll find that VX load factors JFK-LAX were close to 90%.

Get The New Standard In Aviation Data. If you want analytical firepower, dump those other data sources - including those intellectually-comatose printed "quarterly" subscriptions - and log on to DataMiner from Boyd Group International. We can tailor you a subscription package that'll meet your needs and give you the data you need to plan in these uncharted aviation times.   Click here to get started, or give Bill Oliver a call at (303) 674-2000.

February 9, 2009
Snapshot:
Virgin America Operating Profit

Boyd Group International's DataMiner offers a huge number of analytical options in regard to airline operating statistics. Here is a simple report giving Virgin America's operational P&L report, made public this week by the DOT. VX's line-by-line reporting is less comprehensive than larger carriers, but the table clearly shows significant operating losses in the last four quarters.

Because VX is a small airline, it isn't required to break out data as extensively as larger airlines. But DataMiner has other reports that can give more insight to VX and its costs. Here's the VX P6 report - it gives the data, in this case including interest, with ASM costs and percent of total, slicing the numbers within more specific categories...

Virgin America had petitioned DOT to keep this data confidential for "competitive" reasons. Other airlines protested, but the Bush DOT under Mary Peters simply refused to push the matter. It took less than ten days into the Obama Administration to get action, issuing an order denying VX confidentiality, as well as a similar situation at Republic.

Within 24 hours of the DOT order, these numbers were up and available on-line at DataMiner. It's one more reason that our subscribers - financial institutions, airlines, airports, and suppliers - have the Competitive Firepower they need to identify challenges and take advantage of new market opportunities. Trial subscriptions are available to qualified candidates - just e-mail bill @ aviationplanning.com for details.

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January 26, 2009
Snapshot:
Bangor 2009 Capacity Increase

With data from our partner Innovata, LLC, DataMiner provides subscribers with a wide range of analytical reports covering flight levels, capacity, and specific applications of fleet types.

Across the nation as a whole, capacity is currently scheduled to drop around 10.6% in 2009. But it's not across the board, affecting all airports, nor will these cuts be implemented incrementally. Furthermore, some airports are in line for more flights and more seat capacity. Here, we've pulled a quick report comparing the March 2009 schedule at Bangor with that of March 2008 offered by comprehensive network carriers..

There are some interesting airline strategies:

Continental will not only nearly double March frequencies to its hub at Newark, but it's massively increasing seat capacity. DataMiner also has a report that will give the user the actual changes in aircraft scheduled. It's not shown here, but the aircraft drill-down report would show that Continental is moving out of ERJ-135s for this market and into an all ERJ-145 schedule.

The continuing re-structuring of the Delta hub operation at CVG is reflected at Bangor (as at several other airports) with the absence of BGR-CVG flights in 2009. But there's new access to the Delta hub at JFK - giving BGR two carriers to the Big Apple - more than an even trade. As with several other long-haul RJ feed markets across the US which did well before oil prices spiked in 2008, BGR-ATL is gone. Even with the deflation in jet fuel expense, longer-haul RJ feed markets are now very much out of vogue at airline planning departments.

And we can see that the Delta/Northwest combination represents no threat to air service access at Bangor, as the combined company will still be offering more seats and more departures in March than a year earlier. This flies in the face of the amateur and factless fear-mongering peddled late last year by some on the sidelines of the industry, implying that small communities could be in line to have their air service levels zapped by the merger.

One of Dozens of Reports Instantly Available. This chart is just another example of the analytical firepower that Airports:USA DataMiner provides, on-line and ready for immediate access. No other source of aviation data is as complete, and no other source provides anywhere near the level of data, information, and detail with each report. And no other source is as cost-effective, particularly those clunky and often inaccurate printed subscriptions. Give us a call, or e-mail Bill Oliver at Bill@AviationPlanning .com to discover how you can become a DataMiner subscriber, likely for less than what those printed reports cost.
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January 12, 2009
Analysis: Gulf Coast O&D Market Share
MOB, VPS, PFN PNS

One of the unique capabilities of Airports:USA(R) DataMiner is regional O&D traffic analysis. It's a powerful tool to ascertain qualitative and quantitative variances in air service between airports located in the same general region, or which draw on overlapping service areas.

Leakage Issues At Mobile? Here, we've chosen airports along the Gulf Coast. The report ranks the total O&D from the region, and then provides specific data for each airport. The information can identify potential causes of both outbound and reverse traffic leakage, fare vulnerabilities, and inequities in market capture by airport.  Some issues come right to the eye, such as MOB-MSP, where the regional share is way below that of much smaller PFN, and the average fare is 82% higher.   Another data point that bears scrutiny might be PFN-IAH, which represents only 2% capture of the region's #7 O&D market. This report allows quick identification of such issues.

The report is easy and very fast to access, and any set of airports can be queried. It's a great tool to identify share of traffic within a region or metro basin. This is the reason many airport subscribers also opt for data access for competing airports in their region.

Getting Just Printed Traffic Data? You've Probably Got Bad Information. Airports:USA(R) reports are the most accurate available. Unlike other products - particularly those printed "quarterly" reports - Airports:USA data are directly sourced, not purchased from another vendor, and published as-is, errors and all. The information is carefully reviewed, O&D traffic reconciled, and inherent reporting errors are addressed and, where necessary, identified and explained.

Also making Airports:USA far superior to printed reports is the fact that it is on-line and updated constantly to reflect revisions in quarterly data that are often issued by the DOT and other sources. Printed quarterly reports leave the client with inaccurate data.

Complimentary trial subscriptions are available to qualified aviation-related companies. Give us a call to set yours up. .

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January 5, 2009
Analysis: Southwest March 2009 Schedule:
Flexible. Visionary. Non-Doctrinaire. And Smaller.

One of the favorite emerging myths about Southwest is that it's changing its long term strategy away from "only" operating at secondary airports. It's another one of those "everybody knows" factoids that never had any basis in fact to start with.

A comparison of the March 2009 Southwest schedule with that of March 2008 once again indicates the fact that the carrier is focused on increasing revenues - where they can be found. Of the 64 cities Southwest served in March 2008, 75% will see reduced departures in 2009. And only seven of the 17 cities where it's increasing flights are major metro markets - and that includes the new flights at MSP. (These are, in addition to MSP, DEN, FLL, SFO, PHL, MSY and STL.)

DataMiner subscribers with the schedules option have this kind of planning and analytical firepower at their fingertips. The information is updated weekly from our partner Innovata, LLC, which is the company to which IATA requires airlines to provide such data. (They also provide it to other companies as well, but Innovata is the first official source.)

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December 28, 2008
Analysis: AirTran Atlanta Load Factors
Six Months Ended 2Q 2008

Boyd Group International's Airports:USA DataMiner includes immediate T-100 reports, by airline, by airport, and even by aircraft type. Like all DataMiner reports, these appear on the screen in immediately-useful format. This particular report, when pulled from the datasite, includes expansion lines containing load factors for each of the aircraft types operated by the carrier. The report can also be downloaded to Excel, Word, and PDF formats, and there are various options to map the data as well.

Here, DataMiner has sorted AirTran's ATL load factors from highest to lowest for the first half of 2008.

This report reflects all passengers on board - including through and connecting passengers. It is not O&D data, but simply the total passengers on board compared to the seats available.  It is a good indicator of which markets that may be under-performing from a load-factor perspective.
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December 22, 2008
Analysis: Hawaiian Airlines System Operating Performance
Full Year Ended 2Q 2008

Note: Data are for the entire airline, including both inter-island 717 and long-haul 767 operations, which individually represent significantly different environments. Full subscribers to Airports:USA DataMiner have the capability of accomplishing airline analyses by fleet type, as well as by total system.

Of Interest: In the second quarter of 2008, Hawaiian's fuel cost jumped 35% from the prior quarter - by 70 cents a gallon, yet note that the carrier's break-even load factor dropped from 98.7% to a doable 76.4%. The reason is that Hawaiian benefited enormously by the shutdown of Aloha in late March, allowing it to raise yields by 22%.

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