Airport Master Plan Forecasts
The Boyd Group Difference: Scenario/Reality Based Forecasting
Never has aviation been in a more volatile state. This makes accurate and realistic Master Plan forecasting difficult and usually unreliable.
The reason is that traditional Master Plan forecast methodologies are simply based on past trend lines, instead of the dynamic trends of the future.
Boyd Group International accomplishes accurate, real-world Master Plan Forecasts that conform to FAA Circular 150 and deliver data that reflect the new changes in aviation.
Being A Forecasting Firm, We Have Insights That Traditional Methodologies Miss Entirely. Typically, air passenger forecasts simply assume that the past growth rates will continue into the 20-year future. Unfortunately, that’s now entirely inappropriate and inaccurate. Airline strategies change rapidly, demonstrated by recent events where traffic jumped due to fleet changes, or declined due to fleet retirements.
– Or, we have found airports where traffic flows “unexpectedly’ jumped when Delta replaces a couple of 50-seaters with 117-seat B-717s. It’s not “unexpected” when airline fleet trends and market strategies are known.
– Some airports that access military facilities have huge latent potential demand due to re-alignment of defense policies.
– Air service access is “regionalizing” – consumers are opting to use fewer airports, and there are examples of airports losing all scheduled service to a much larger airport more than an hour and a half away. This means some airports are in line for strong growth that is not driven by local economics, but by airline strategies.
– Then there are the raw economics of air transportation: at least two airports in 2014 lost all scheduled flights when the incumbent airline retired a substantial part of their turboprop fleet.
– And, meanwhile, formerly-sleepy airports in the cold Dakotas are bursting at the seems due to regional oil boom.
– That traditional level of GA operations may not be there five years from now, what with the uncertainty of supply of 100LL. The traditional growth of high-end business aviation is slowing, changing historical trends in annual movements.
Point: this is no longer a trend-lined industry. And that means you need an expert in future industry dynamics and in aviation forecasting to assist in your Master Plan.
You need Boyd Group International.
Scenario Forecasting. We are a research and forecast-focused consulting firm. We are constantly researching aviation trends that will drive traffic and operations at airports from rural GA facilities to major Global Portals such as DFW. Our Airports:USA enplanement forecasts are the only ones accomplished entirely in the private sector, using real-world methodologies, not just stale econometric formulas as do other consultants. Our expertise extends from assisting with small airport master plans to projecting global airliner demand for major aircraft manufacturers.
This is where we part company with other consultants, and where we can deliver far more accurate and real-world Master Plan forecasts. We know the trends in the aviation industry – and they cannot be all mathematically-modeled. Our expertise in this area assists our clients in building planning programs that match the future, not an obsolete past.
We know where airline strategies are headed, nationally and at the airport level. We know fleet and capacity trends. We follow GA and business aviation dynamics.
To be clear, we don’t have a crystal ball about where an airport will be 20 years from now. But between today and the next five to seven years, no one can match our expertise to get that Master Plan off to strong, accurate, and scenario-based start.
By then, it will be time for the next MP revision. And Boyd Group will again be there with the most accurate data and forecast expertise for that much-needed update.
We look forward to partnering with you to deliver your (and our) airport clients a Master Plan that’s really just that – a solid plan. Click here to request more information, or give us a call at (303) 674-2000.