In This Week's Monday Insight Blog
October 21, 2024
Southwest Airlines: The Elliott program has some real issues. But it does illuminate a seminal challenge for Southwest Airlines.
As the air transportation system evolves, WN's traditional strategies and model are falling behind. The "single airliner" benefits aren't there anymore, because it does operate a fleet of somewhat operationally disparate airliners, albeit all labeled as "737."
As its network competition expands, Southwest has but two capacity units that preclude it from effectively competing in a world of regionalized access. The operational cost advantages evaporated years ago. The "Southwest effect" in dampening ambient fares is much diminished.
And more. Southwest, however has the foundation on which to transform and prosper. But it has to recognize that it is now in a very different competitive situation. Click here and join us for a review of this subject posted on our Touch & Go vision letter this past week-end.
______________
October 14, 2024
The Issue of Sustainable Aviation Fuel:
David Neeleman Makes A Telling Point.
This past week, at an aviation event, David Neeleman - Founder of JetBlue, Azul and Breeze - shocked the industry with his concerns about "Sustainable" aviation fuel, a.k.a. SAF.
Yikes! He thinks the entire approach is wrong, and that the unintended consequences to society and the environment are ignored, not to mention the issue of economic viability.
There's a difference between hard facts and veneer concerns about the environment.
Log on here for our take on his comments.
October 7, 2024
Airports Preparing For Advanced Air Mobility.
Maybe We Should Define It, First.
This week we take a quick look at how airports may need to invest in the infrastructure for the expected onslaught of small, electric air transports coming in the next 18 months.
Not to get too wrapped around the axle, one might want to first determine more closely the potential market scope of this new sector.
Unfortunately, that approach is not in play. AAM has been diverted into a Messiah-program that's short on hard numbers and hard opportunity thinking.
Join us.
________________________
September 23, 2024
Hezbollah Exploding Pagers & Walkie-Talkies.
For The TSA & AVSEC, Now What?
A lot of bad actors in the Middle East are now probably reticent to hit the blender for a quick Margarita, or brown a bagel in their toaster ovens, lest the Israelis (or whoever) may already have them booby-trapped.
But right now, the new issue in the USA is cellphone security, at several levels. What happened to the Hezbollah rogues gallery raises some issues that the folks running the TSA may want to consider.
Click here to get the Monday Update.
September 16, 2024
The EAS program. Now becoming a safe haven for excess fleets?
Breeze is applying for the EAS designation at Pueblo and Ogdensburg.
This week, we look at the benefits for the airline within the declining (U)LCC model.
It makes sense for Breeze, but maybe no so much for the communities involved.
Click here for clear perspectives on how the EAS program continues to spiral into chaos.
_______
September 9, 2024
The truth, not the political slime.
__________________
August 19, 2024
Southwest & Elliott. Are These Financial Guys Seriously In This?
Elliott Management has declared that Southwest does not have sufficient airline expertise on its board of directors. They have proposed a slate of ten new directors, including at least five former C-level airline executives, to fix this and provide the leadership that an airline needs today.
At least according to them. We took a look at the boards at AA, DL and UA and discovered that these three are in severely deep yogurt, at least by Elliott's supposed expertise in the airline business. Log on here and take a look.
August 5, 2024
The environmental narrative. The rush to zero-carbon. The imperative for "sustainable" fuel. The expectation of whole new air transportation technology.
That's the no-questions-to-be-asked narrative. That's the requirement to try to out virtue-signal the competition into being at the forefront of the movement.
Air New Zealand just determined that this emperor is short of duds. Click here for clear facts.
July 28, 2024
Southwest and elimination of open seating. It's actually a service opportunity, if done right.
It is astounding how stupid the media can be.
Allowing seat selection (and it's not arbitrary "assignment") gives the customer more options.
But there are some major issues that WN needs to avoid. Click here & join us.
____________
July 15, 2024
New Study To Outline How ULCCs May Be About To Change The Air Transportation System
_________
July 15, 2024
Fortress Hubs: Already Competitively Breached.
New Competition In The Works.
_____
July 8, 2024
This week:
The Boeing Mess - Affecting USA Air Service
We do bullet points covering the Boeing criminal agreement. Jaywalking in Corporateland while the major issues at the company fester.
A fine equal to the price of a single 777?
The senior management still in place?
The fact that the company has been allowed to decline based on bogus programs to boost share price?
New government oversight? We thought the FAA was responsible for that. Click here to join us.
Plus: Coming Next Week:
June 24, 2024
It's just sort of a self-service elevator. Not attached to anything.
Zoom across cities and between airports in 6-passenger comfort with out the annoyance of hearing "this is your captain speaking."
There won't be one. Or a first officer, either.
Houston and Dallas/Ft.Worth are pursuing intra-urban air systems. The Boeing/Wisk aircraft is at the forefront.
Question is whether the consumer will be. Click here to join us.
____________
June 17, 2024
How Advanced Air Mobility has become a religious cult more than a transportation concept. Click Here.
June 10, 2024
We are discussing the implications of the latest EAS award at Presque Isle, Maine.
It represents in one place the reasons that this program is not only obsolete, but in some cases detrimental to small communities.
Heresy.
__________
June 3, 2024
Fleet mix: it will be determined by the availability of the aircraft that manufacturers can produce profitably. That will be a new factor in air service access planning.
Log on for a new perspective on airport planning.
_________
May 20, 2024
ULCCs: Morphing Into Mainline Competitors.
This week we look at the changes coming in the ULCC Model.
May 13, 2024
Travel Agents:
Working Hard To Bring Back The 1970s
The American Society of Travel Advisors - ASTA - has accused American Airlines of monopolistic actions by deciding to award FF points in most cases only to bookings made on the AA website.
It is anybody's guess as to how ASTA came up with this, other then their apparent fantasy that travel agencies are still a major part of air travel retailing.
Join us to take look at the history of the travel agency channel and reasons that it's now a secondary player, and one that is not critical to either consumers of airlines.
____________________
May 6, 2024
The AAM Concept:
Now A Children's Crusade
______
Rural Air Service Development:
Time To Leave The Fantasy World
It is a new set of realities when it comes to dealing with air service access for rural communities and regions.
We've covered some of the fantasies being foisted on small communities by consultants selling tainted snake oil to civic leaders who are desperate to get "air service" (which usually is undefined in regard to specifics within the realities of the airline industry) back at the local airport.
We noted one midwestern community that has now hired not one but two consultants to dig up the magic data to "lure" more air service to town, even though the current incumbent is doing poorly and there are at least two other airports in the region. Funny, but it would be ethical for the consultants to advise something more that sunshine pablum.
We noted how one community woke up and realized they've spent over $300 grand over the last few years ASD consulting and have nothing to show for it. How 'bout the small community in the Northeast, which has lost EAS, engaging now in a six-month "study" to determine if they can re-attract air service.
Meanwhile, the airline industry has fundamentally and economically changed.
This week, we take off the gloves and candidly review a poster child for the small community ASD nonsense. Consultants have the ethical responsibility to inform and advise airports, not pander.
Click here, and if you have input, please hit the contact button and speak out.
_________
April 22, 2024
Airlines: Start Fighting For The Consumer
This week I look at the recent attacks on the airline industry by Buttigieg, who clearly told the world that USA airlines are cheating the consumer.
Given the eager postings of customer service outrages on the internet, the public can be led to believe this politician is right. The truth is very different, but perception is reality.
This week I look at how the airline industry can take the initiative and get the public on its side. It will take some fundamental changes in how airlines view their customers and how they structure their product.
Concept: Pilots and cabin safety staff are critical to airline operations, and they cost money. Professional customer service is also essential to airline operations, yet between product complexity, nickle-and-dime options, and in many cases outsourcing to mercenary vendors with no concern for the airline itself, this is an area where carriers can turn the tables on the DOT and their fellow-traveler consumer jihadists.
Take a look. Let me know your comments, too!
___________
________________
April 15, 2024
ULCCs: Shifting To The Pilot Fish Model?
We're taking a gander at Spirit today.
No, it's not about the well-publicized financial challenges. It's far more fundamental than that.
It has to do with a major shift in the ULCC model. A fundamental shift that most folks have missed.
Log on here and join us. As always, comments are welcome via the contact page.
____________
April 8, 2024
The Opening of Cuba: Ten Years Later
We thought it would be of interest to revisit the excitement that surrounded Obama's 2014 opening of diplomatic relations with Cuba and the expansion of scheduled air service between the two countries.
The excitement was incredible. USA businesses were falling all over themselves, predicting a tsunami of the new Cuba market. Travel industry groups were predicting huge tourist flows, due to what they declared was "pent-up" demand.
And airlines were ready to jump into the new route authorities to various points on the island. One airline actually indicated to its domestic stations that expansion would have to wait while they took full advantage of the Cuba bonanza. Everything had changed.
And, here we are a decade later. Cuba has seen less business than an Edsel dealer. There's a reason. The one thing that hasn't changed is Cuba.
Click here for more information and to take a gander at our latest Aviation Unscripted video on the subject.
______________
April 1, 2024
The Boeing Fiasco: Spreading Into A Political Vehicle
It was serious enough when the revelations about sloppy repairs, questionable quality, and record-keeping were in the news about Boeing.
Now, it is becoming a lot wider. There are indications that consumers may be actively concerned about booking flights operated by 737MAX airliners. If that is a trend, do be certain that the inhabitants at the top of the DOT will do all they can to explore requirements for such disclosure, which would be devastating to the airlines involved.
Now the Texas AG is demanding Boeing's top supplier to prove that its DEI programs are not harming safety. Regardless of one's feelings about DEI, the wider issue is whether a Texas official in Austin really has a legitimate dog in this fight. Click here for more.
March 25, 2024
The FAA Isn't Just An Outside Player. They Were Responsible for Boeing Oversight. Now, They're Playing A PR Game.
Between claiming criminal activity in the Alaska door event and prematurely implying that United has operational problems and must be growth restricted, it's clear that the FAA is clawing to make sure the media and the public don't conclude the truth.
The truth that it has been the FAA that was responsible for oversight of Boeing in the MAX certification and the company's manufacturing systems. The United comments are without question for PR purposes. The FAA has been part of the problem and this needs to be recognized and addressed. Click here.
March 18, 2024
The Ten Small/Mid-Size Airport ASD Commandments
Let's cut to the bottom line. A lot of communities are pursuing air service within a fantasy airline system. Sort of worshiping false ASD gods.
We take a look at the ten new realities facing these challenges, and conclude that whole new thinking is needed, including a full understanding of the effects of airline fleet changes and new strategy directions.
_______
March 11, 2024
This Week:
Airline Strategy Shifts Due 737-10 Delays
The AA E175 Order: Not A Small Community Strategy
Airbus Potential Expansion In USA
Will The Media Torpedo Spirit?
______
March 4, 2024
This week:
JetBlue/Spirit. The Changing Florida Picture. Mobile Scores.
February 26, 2024
Airline Retailing:
More Changes Coming. Traditional Channels Eliminated
Twenty years ago, brick-and-mortar travel agencies were given pink slips as major channels for air travel retailing. Despite the squeals demanding that congress take action to force airlines to pay TAs for services they didn't need any longer, these entities are no longer a factor in airline retailing. Technology has eclipsed them.
Today, watch American Airlines. They maybe implementing the next step in simplifying the retail process. Will Expedia and Travelocity be in the crosshairs? Click here.
February 12, 2024
RIP: The ULCC Model:
The Emergence of the AOL:
Alternative Option Carrier.
The ULCC model has run into what might be the end of the line for expansion of the traditional impulse demand model. Florida and 'Vegas may be slowing, and there are other revenue streams that some ULCCs are looking at. None are slam-dunks, but are instead rolls of the dice. Click Here
February 4, 2024
Frequent Flyer Programs:
Are "Miles" On Affinity Credit Cards A Purchased Asset?
The entire reason and purpose of frequent flyer programs have changed completely from when they were first implemented at major carriers four decades ago.
Today, they are major revenue sources via airline affinity credit cards. Millions of consumers use these cards to earn "miles" to cash in for free or discounted travel. However, the value of these miles can and has been altered from time to time as airlines change award levels.
This has congress and the DOT involved. Join us for a brief perspective on the challenges this represents for airlines and air travel.
Click here and join us for perspectives not yet seen in the consensus.
January 29, 2024
The Boeing Situation:
It Will Affect The US Air Transportation System.
Airports: Check Your ASD Premises
The Boeing 737 fiasco is growing and spreading well beyond its factories.
This week, we take a hard look at the unfolding effects of the -9 and other issues at Boeing. This has uncovered a major set of revelations and has started a sky-change in the global airliner industry and the air transportation system.
Hello, America. Like a real nuclear bomb, there is going to be fallout from this Boeing mess that will be widespread and long-lasting.
Indeed, we'd opine that it's already affected Lincoln, Nebraska. We have clear information from United, Alaska and Southwest that the summer may not be what was planned six weeks ago.
Click here and join us for perspectives not yet seen in the consensus.
_______
January 22, 2024
B6/NK - The Wider Messages From Outside The Courtroom
It's Not The Deal. It's The Changing Market Dynamics That It Illuminates
Click here and join us! This week, there will be a lot of retrospective on the court decision barring the JetBlue/Spirit deal. This will be particularly true now that the two airlines are appealing.
But what is being missed are the reasons for the proposed arrangement and the fundamental changes taking place in the ULCC sector, where Spirit is a major player.
Take a look at this week's Monday Update. The industry is in for some real model shifts in 2024.
_________
January 15, 2024
Small & Rural Communities:
The Southern Model May Be The ASD Answer
Focus On Specific Business Demand,
And Stop Trying To Compete Head-On With Larger Airports
Take a hard look at the last five years in regard to air service recruitment at small community local airports, particularly after a major carrier has left.
The track record is pretty dismal - the network carrier is gone for a reason, and consumers generally are finding better time-efficient air travel options at drive-to larger airports. The main issue is that these smaller communities usually are engaged in bringing back air service that no longer can work.
In this week's insight, a new approach is discussed. Not a replacement for American or Delta or United, but the potential for access that can be valuable to a well-defined sector of the local economy. Assuming one exists.
January 8, 2024:
The Alaska 737 Fallout:
Would A Grounding Be Catastrophic?
It could have been a one-off event. But what if there is a more fundamental issue that demands a longer-term grounding of these airliners?
Service adjustments would take a toll on Alaska and United. But in the wider scope, it's just 144 airliners out of a USA fleet of over 6,000. For United, a challenge. For Alaska, it's almost 30% of their fleet.
Let's take a look. Click here.
January 1, 2024
Four Aviation Dynamics To Watch In 2024
Airline Capacity:
Mainline Carriers Are Cautious.
ULCCs Are All Over The Spectrum.
Watch for economic shifts in the next six weeks.
Air Service Development Trends:
Hopefully, the Red Way boondoggle will signal a change to professional programs.
But some of the indications from Lincoln indicate the lesson is being ignored.
Airline Corporate Deals, a.k.a, (inaccurately) Mergers.
Prognosis Not Very Encouraging.
The NK/B6 and AS/HA proposals are very different in structure and objectives.
But both are consumer-positive. The consumerist wags, however, will likely carry the day.
The Airline Industry As DOT Punching Bag.
Carriers Create Some of This, But ...
A couple of recent service failures have been celebrated in media stories as clear proof airline service is running amok.
The reality is as much about bad journalism that tolerates and encourages misinformation as it is customer service
Click here to go for the full stories.
g
BGI Across The Forum of Aviation Media
Perspectives That Question The Consensus.
Click here to go to media page.
______
June 28, 2024 - iHeart Radio. Mike Hosking Breakfast
A clear and forthright set of predictions regarding the outcomes of the Senate hearings featuring Boeing CEO David Calhoun. Turned out to be on the money - lots of dancing around the issue from the CEO.
May 12, 2024 - News Nation
Mike Boyd diffuses the difference between operational events with Boeing airliners and the current manufacturing issues.
________
Coming June 2024
Mike Boyd participated on a panel of aviation experts exploring the Boeing fiasco. He was joined by Captain Dennis Tajer of the Allied Pilots Association, Captain Richard Levy, aviation safety expert, Shawn Pruchnicki of Center for Aviation Studies at Ohio State University, and Robert Turkewitz, attorney representing the family of deceased Boeing Wistleblower John Barnett.
To be aired in June, this will gain no support from the front offices at Boeing.
________________
Other recent media coverage
______________
______________