Monday Insight – Observing The Dr.King Holdiday

We’ll be back next week!
_____________________

January 10, 2022

The Meteors Have Hit… The Dinosaurs Haven’t Noticed

We Have… Announcing A New Aviation Perspectives Channel

They claim that the dinosaurs went 86 because they failed to adjust to changes in the environment after a meteor or meteors hit the planet.

When it comes to aviation planning, the CCP-covid pandemic might be the equivalent of the event… the entire ecosystem has changed but a lot of the approaches to the future haven’t.

… Air traffic volume is not only materially reduced, but the demand drivers have changed…

… The role of air travel as a business communication channel has changed – the pandemic only accelerated the expansion of virtual meetings – not a channel in 2010, but a huge one now.

… The emergence of new, multi-mission airliners is opening new potential for many airports, that were non-existent just three years ago.

… Network air carrier access is shifting into fewer airports, accelerating regionalization of air access – a process that in most cases is also consumer-driven

… ULCCs have evolved into a parallel air transportation product – using airliners to produce a new consumer spend option.

… Business aviation is taking on a new expanded role in the the transportation system – raising new revenue opportunities for airports of all sizes and categories.

… Air logistics and the value of time are emerging to represent new future opportunities for secondary and rural airports.

Lots of changes… lots of opportunities. These are just the main shifts that clearly show that how air transportation and its role in the economy is fundamentally different than two years ago. Yet, the approach to air service and airport planning is still assuming that the salad days and the pre-CCP-Covid system are coming back.

The dinosaurs haven’t adjusted to the post-Covid meteor. It’s pre-Covid business as usual. It’s planning for the past.

When In Doubt – Assume The Past. Not too long ago, there was a study completed for a mid-size airport that has been losing network air access for years, mainly because an easily-accessible nearby connecting hub offers far more convenient and time-effective service than the local airport could ever support. It’s a natural consumer trend in many parts of the nation. The airport in question needs to review and pursue new economic roles.

One would think that the study would concentrate on the emerging alternative economic options open to the airport, such as analysis of future regional logistics, opportunities for new-generation aviation investment and/or re-focus on additional impulse/ULCC service, quit-claiming air access demand to the other airport which is already meeting the community’s air access needs.

Nope. Instead, in addition to the usual-suspect charts and graphs of the now-gone pre-Covid air transportation system, the document spent page after page reviewing the airport’s website, it’s app, and it’s social media program. It went into detail comparing these to other airports’ digital programs. The ultimate conclusion was that with improvement in these areas, additional airlines would definitely be attracted to serve the airport, once the pandemic was over. Can’t make this stuff up.

Yessir, a new website and a flashy Twitter and Facebook strategy – that’s sure gonna lure those airlines into town. Dunno if this state has legalized marijuana, but it would appear that cigarettes with no names may have been involved.

Unfortunately, this is still the obsolete level of a lot of airport development support… instead of a focus on the future, the trend is in trying to dance away from it. Instead of recognizing that past data are no longer representative of the future, the M.O. is massive tables and heat maps and charts of pre-CCP-Covid O&D data that have little value in planning the new future.

The issue is that the effects of the CCP-pandemic have completely changed the metrics and the strategies in the airline industry, not to mention consumer preferences. That means hard, unvarnished advice and perspectives are needed… not pablum trying to bring back the past.

Traffic Demand Is Shifting – Appearing In New Places – Evaporating In Others. Here’s a hint: in 2022, US airports will see almost 100 million fewer enplanements than in 2019. In raw numbers, that’s 100,000,000 less folks boarding airplanes. Here’s another fact: as carriers such as American, Delta and United yank additional feed routes, there is no magic formula that the passengers will just shift to other airlines. When Delta cut service to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, over 12,000 annual Atlanta O&D evaporated…poof! Gone. No, it didn’t shift to other airports. It just ended. Another fun fleet hint: look for an additional 150 50-seat jets to evaporate from US network carriers in the coming year.

All of this tells us that a lot of traditional aviation thinking is going in the wrong direction. There are entirely new evolving dynamics of air transportation in the USA. Cuddle-level studies and a new Facebook outreach won’t do diddly to address them. Unfortunately, a lot of airport consulting doesn’t dare state the hard facts – one reason is that it might kill the consulting deal, and they aren’t ready to define a new future that has a lot of tough-to-accept changes.

Log On Wednesday For A Futurist Horizon. Announcing a new source of hard, no holds barred aviation perspectives – Boyd+Swelbar Unvarnished – aviation perspectives that other sources shy away from. Tentatively, a new video every other Wednesday. Our Rumble channel can be accessed and will be up shortly… what will also be up may be some hackles from some of the remaining dinosaurs.

This Wednesday, take a few minutes to check out a whole new approach to aviation issues. Direct, irreverent and incisive, with just a touch (or more) of an iconoclastic disregard for ambient thinking.

We’re taking the old, peeling varnish off of aviation analysis approaches.  We don’t worship sacred cows… we barbecue them. We question a lot of ambient dogmas being accepted within the safe cloak of intellectual me-too ism. Each video will discuss a set of important aviation issues of the day. No sugar-coating. No political correctness. Just hard commentary and data for aviation leaders who can join us on the think wagon.

So, join us January 12, and take a look  Click here to get ready. 

__________________________________

A Happy & Healthy New Year To All!
____________
Before we start, a quick reminder of something coming in 2022:____________

Boeing China Situation – Whose Pocket Is Wall Street In?

The year 2022 is not boding well for Boeing. Funny, nobody seems to have noticed.

We outlined on a recent Touch & Go newsletter, as well as on an Aviation Unscripted video, that for all intents and purposes, Boeing has been frozen out of the China airliner market. Indeed, as if to open the New Year, a Chinese leasing company just cancelled a couple of undelivered Max orders.

According to Boeing, China sales represented 25% of their global commercial airline business. And it’s gone 86. But the financial gurus following Boeing have said nothing. Nothing.

It’s starting to look suspicious. The connected whiz-kids in the Wall Street world cannot be completely oblivious to this.

Sumptin’s not right here. This is a situation that will affect the economy of the USA, not to mention what is reported to be America’s largest exporter, and silence is the word.

Airbus Is Delivering Planes In China, But Not Boeing. With the domestic economic and Covid mess created by the unelected criminal thugs running China, air travel volume in that country has dropped like a baby grand out the 8^th floor window. Nevertheless, Chinese airlines have been taking delivery of A320s and A321s for months, and continue to do so.

But as for Boeing, it’s the red headed step-manufacturer as far as China is concerned. No deliveries or new orders for the 737, even though the Max is now out of regulatory jail just about everywhere, including China.

Under the Trump administration, the CCP agreed to purchase a certain amount of USA goods, including airliners.

Naturally, with what is sitting in the White House, they now find it a snap to renege on the deal. (Let’s tell it like it is, these guys apparently couldn’t tell China from a set of Melmac.)

Not Only No Deliveries, But Cancellations, Too. As noted above, deliveries of Airbus products have continued in China. But two weeks ago, Boeing got zapped again. Urumqi Airlines (for the folks playing the home game – Urumqi is the capital of Xinjiang province, where the CCP government operates forced labor concentration camps and cultural genocide) – cancelled its order for three 737-Max 8s.

But it’s not a paper cancellation… all three of these orders are already in metal. They were built over two years ago, and have been stored in Moses Lake, Washington.

The damage here isn’t just to Boeing, but to the leasing companies that own these grounded birds. Maybe they can re-market them, but in any case, they’re taking a whale of a financial hit.

A Higher Calling Than Truth: Wall Street Companies Don’t Want To Offend The CCP. This is not inconsequential to the USA economy. Boeing-related manufacturing states like Kansas, South Carolina and Washington are taking a hit. Yet there has been zero evidence of any notice taken by either the folks inside the Beltway or the supposed financial experts on Wall Street. Lockjaw.

In this situation, it’s every big company for themselves. You’re not likely to find any major financial institutions taking up for Boeing. Heck, you aren’t seeing Boeing taking up for Boeing.

Reason: it’s not nice to offend mother CCP, the unelected thugs running China. Do so, and your access to the China market will get choked. So we’re not likely to see any giant red flags from any major financial firm regarding what’s going on with Boeing in China. They typically in one way or another have dogs in this fight.

The media is not clear of culpability. By a long shot. At least one major USA network is making lots of investment in China in a huge amusement park. Yup, that sure won’t affect their reporting, right? Then there’s the issue of getting a media source’s entire China bureau booted out of country for as much as an untoward headline.

Or, having staff kidnapped, captured and locked inside China, literally held up for ransom. There are estimated to be over 400 foreign business people in exactly this situation today. (Fact – want details, hit the contact button.)

The second issue that allows this outrage is simple. That’s the current occupants in the White House are completely incompetent in standing up to the criminals running China. The track record in the last 12 months is incontrovertible. Demanding that Xi Jinping and his neo-Mafia crowd adhere to prior agreements to buy US goods is out of the question.

End of discussion. It’s a situation the CCP has won. They are being permitted to call the shots. Airbus is now the official supplier of airliners to China.

The employees at Boeing and its suppliers – whose jobs are at stake – are on their own. There’s nobody standing up for them.

Or, when it comes to dealing with the criminals running China, standing up for America.

__________________

And That Brings Up The Olympic Third Rail

In the past week, thousands of airline flights have been cancelled. Hundreds of thousands of families have had their holiday plans shattered.

The main reason is the rapid spread of the latest variant of the CCP-created corona virus. The virus that has killed millions of people… the virus that the CCP knew in 2019 was spreading in Wuhan and for political reasons intentionally not only covered it up, but actually held crowd-heavy events to “prove” nobody had to fear that it was contagious. They lied. They covered up. And the virus went global, spread and is mutating. The torpedoing of the air transportation system as a result of the virus is just the latest impact of their actions.

Those are facts. The truth. No need for the controversy of where the virus originated (although that’s no longer much in doubt.) No matter. It was there, spreading rapidly and they criminally tried to cover it up.

Add to this that the same CCP that started all this is engaging in world-recognized cultural genocide in Xinjiang, in stamping out democracy in Hong Kong, and preparing its military to invade democratic Taiwan. All this and more at the hands of the very government and individuals that will be put on a global pedestal and lauded in just four weeks.

One month from today, the IOC is holding what they are calling the 2022 Winter Olympics in China. There are big companies sponsoring the events… networks, airlines, food companies, global businesses… all soooo proud to be supporting the spirit of the Olympics, even though it is whitewashing and glorifying the most egregious regime since Adolf Hitler.

To each its own. But the fact remains that the 2022 Winter Olympics is showcasing a vile regime, and instead of holding them responsible, there are companies that will be parties to an event that will be glorifying the perpetrators of the worst attack on human life in history. Silence is a message.

The sponsors of this event should rethink their moral compass.

____________

This Week’s Aviation Unscripted Video…

Click here... we are covering the 5 top observations for 2022.

They all point to one general trend… the air transportation system is changing, and while it’s going to be disruptive, it’s all positive.

And we want to thank all the folks accessing this channel, on Rumble.com and other access points, too.

__________________

Before we get started…
There’s something new coming in aviation analysis

______

Saying What’s Obvious, But Verboten…

Air Service Access Planning: Using Analog Metrics In A Digital Future

The year 2021, aside from re-sorting the market wreckage of the CCP-inflicted global Covid pandemic, displayed a range of dynamics that without any question have restructured the very foundations of the air transportation system. There are lots of emerging opportunities, particularly in regard to changes in fleet missions and in the growth of logistics.

The system has changed, and is continuing to change.

But much – no, most – of the traditional air service development approaches have not.

They assume that “catchment areas” are just simple geographical boundaries, with no recognition that consumer preferences increasingly are based on a lot more fundamental drivers than residential zip code. They go into lots of pre-2019 data to develop “leakage analyses” that are really fading snapshots of past, not future, airline capacity strategies. They blissfully ignore major fleet changes that deliver new (and in many cases increasingly expansive) mission and route potentials that will alter consumer travel decisions on what airports will be used and which will need to recognize that regionalization of air travel access is the future.

The Old System Is Gone. The Name of The Game Is Repurposing Airports’ Economic Foundations. It’s unfortunate that most ASD approaches like those above are still structured to measure and restore a system that’s dead… killed off by progress and affected by the pandemic. It’s a system that at its operational, economic and consumer bases has completely changed.

But this means dealing with difficult realities… realities that most air service studies don’t touch.

–  Airline fleets are changing in mission structure. It’s convenient to simply blame recent 50-seat jet retirements and route cuts to a pilot shortage. The more cogent underlying reason is that these airplanes are following the market evolution seen with their small and mid-size turboprop precursors. These reductions are due to new operating economics, not only a change in staffing issues. That means changes in air service potentialities.

– Changing airline strategies – of which fleet changes are a key part – dictate new route and market planning. The AA/B6 alliance is just one part of these shifts. There will be more, and any ASD study that doesn’t contemplate such changes and discuss the planing and opportunity alternatives isn’t reliable. It’s veneer analysis.

– More regionalization of scheduled air service access. It’s what Boyd Group International has dubbed “road hubbing” and which has been a key part of our assistance to our airport clients. The claim that a community is “economically dead” without scheduled flights at the local airport is not only bogus, but is a factor that deters more regions from exploring wider air access options consistent with airline industry realities. It is lamentable that a lot of consultant studies today are geared to propagating this obsolete and incompetent canard, basically because telling the hard truth would preclude the entire study.

– “Studies” that completely mislead, but deliver the “politically desired” message. A lot of “air service development” studies have descended into programs that smack at the ragged edge of ethical responsibility. Most are concocted with past data and pre-Covid perspectives that assume that pre-2019 air service is the returnable norm. Some airports have been inflicted with multiple such missives, with predictable results. None.

The Latest Elixir: Fix That Website, Maintain A Cutesy Twitter Message, And Voila! Flights Will Come. Not long ago, there was a “study” published for a small airport, exploring where the airport stands in regard to the future. This magnum opus was in excess of 70 pages, including the perfunctory “leakage analysis.”

In addition to some ULCC leisure-destination impulse service, the airport involved is now down to just a single network hub feed route, with just about all the traffic demand in the region taking advantage of the hundreds of flights at a large connecting hubsite an hour or less away. That should have been the analytical and professional focus… the future role of the airport within the realities of air service dynamics.

This airport is in a crossroads situation that demands exploring innovative concepts on repurposing its role and its economic base. But in a lot of these projects, reality isn’t welcome. The city fathers, who understandably do not have much knowledge of the fundamentals of air transportation, naturally want more air service. Even if getting it is about as likely as a visit from Martians, well, by golly, there are folks who are ready to develop missives that will deliver that vision.

Accordingly, it’s a give ‘em what they want situation. This epic document contained nearly zero discussion or analysis of airline-related issues, which in all candor would have revealed the new future that this specific airport needs to pursue, especially in light of it having a snowball’s chance in Miami of ever meaningfully competing with consumer alternatives an hour or less away. The situation dictates immediate action to plan for a repurposed future.

Nothing doing. Instead, there were pages after pages delivering – get this – in-depth critiques on the airport’s website, web app, and social media messaging, deep-diving into great detail to compare them to other airports’ similar programs.

Meanwhile, back in reality, the airport still is facing changes in airline route strategies. Other than just some brief and veneer comparisons with other “peer” airports, the client was not provided with a shred of light in regard to the specific local potential (or lack of same) of attracting additional network air access, or exploring building a new strategic role for the airport. None.

You can’t make this stuff up. The basic conclusion was, incredibly, that, not to worry, “more airlines” would be attracted to the client airport if these areas were improved. Not a word about specific airline strategies, alternative service options, discussion of the ability to increase impulse traffic. Nothing in detail relating to the fundamental aviation opportunities of the future.

The worst part of this example is that it’s more the norm in a lot of ASD studies.

The Reality: Lots of New Opportunities – Particularly For Smaller Airports. This is the reason that there’s a need for direct, tell-it-like-it’s-going-to-be aviation discussion and research. These traditional ASD programs miss the future… a bright future where changes in distribution and logistics will deliver new revenue streams for airports that have the vision and gumption to embrace change. A bright future for communities that band together and recognize that regionalization and concentration of scheduled commercial service is the only way of assuring stronger air access a new-generation airliners come into operation.

At Boyd Group International, we’re pursuing projects that assist communities and airports adjust to and optimize the new dynamics of aviation. We really are not concerned whether a client’s website meets the latest and subjective trendy look and feel. We’re a firm dedicated to aviation results based on the future, not feel-good consumer surveys that have zero effect of air transportation and consumer trends. We are laser-focused on optimizing economic viability of our airport clients. That means readjusting to new economics – and they represent new potential.

We’re not into trying to recreate the past. We’re a forecast research firm that helps our clients find the future.

Their specific future. Give us a call and we can talk about it.
_____________________

ALL OF US AT BOYD GROUP INTERNATIONAL WISH YOU A PROSPEROUS AND EXCITING NEW YEAR!

________________

Before We Start…

There’s A New Video Concept Coming In Aviation Analysis…

____________________

Hard Facts & New Better Air Service

Regionalization of Air Access Isn’t Coming.
It’s Already In Progress… Big Time

Let’s cut to the chase here.

Airline economics have changed. Airline fleets have changed. The air service options for communities have changed as a result. The approaches to air service access planning have not changed.

The imperative for every community is to identify and recognize the specific effects these changes will have on their airports in the coming year, and plan accordingly.

One New Critical Planning Criterion – The Consumer. This means taking an honest look at the future. No, not one that assumes or wishes the current air transportation system will remain in place. With the structural shifts in the airline industry, air service planning today needs to be founded on one new core issue: where it stands in regard to alternative consumer travel options.

The key is to anticipate, plan accordingly and not get blind-sided by a trend that’s increasingly obvious, but often missed entirely.

It’s called regionalization of air access.

It was demonstrated last month, where United, American and Delta yanked or reduced service at a number of small and mid-size airports.  These were not just strategic changes – they were the clear indications of a major shift in the economics of air transportation.

The Goal Is Not Just “Air Service” But What It Represents. Planning for the future demands clear, unvarnished understanding that the number one objective of any community or region is to assure communication connectivity with the rest of the world. Here’s a hard fact… scheduled air service at the local airport will be only one factor. In some cases, a declining or disappearing factor. Consumers are finding superior options to what the local airport can support.

Moving ahead, the Airports:USA® traffic demand forecast for 2022 indicates that – at best – enplanements will be @90% of what was seen in 2019. Then toss in the accelerated down-shift of business traffic combined with increased low-fare leisure segments, and we don’t need to confer with a Rhodes scholar to see that the air transportation business – and the related revenue streams – are going to be materially different.

Different Airliners = Different Airline Strategies. One of the first and most impactful areas will be a continued re-fleeting. More 50-seat jets will get retired for economic reasons. On the other end, airliners such as the A220 and the A321XLR will open new nonstop air service options that weren’t possible in the past at a lot of mid-size non-connecting hub airports.

This expanded air service will increase the economic potential of whole regions. In addition, however, the general result will be more regional concentration of air access.

Take a look at Killeen, Texas. Including United’s soon-to-be discontinued service, the airport has roughly eight departures a day, to IAH and to DFW – neither of which are O&D destinations for Killeen. That means almost all consumers using Killeen are making at least one connection to their final destination.

Now, roughly 60-75 drive minutes away, there is Austin. It has over 260 flights a day, to over 60 nonstop destinations and virtually every other connecting hub in the USA.

That is the alpha and the omega of the small community air service challenge in many regions of the USA.

Fact: Killeen cannot compete with what AUS offers, and it never will. The remaining AA service likely can be supported by the flow that the carrier offers over DFW. But the fact is that Killeen’s main air gateway to the world is now Austin. GRK is secondary, and that’s a starting point on which any airport planning must be based. None of this is negative, unless politicians want to paint it that way.

That’s the situation at a number of points across the nation. In some cases, the drive to an alternative airport is even less than 60 minutes, and in some cases it’s a whole lot further. And in many cases, the geographic location of the smaller community isolates it entirely from this situation.… the local airport is the only option.

But the core fact remains: regionalization is in process, and smaller communities need to understand that this can represent opportunities for alternative economic applications of the local airport. For example, the city fathers at Killeen, instead of commissioning another air service “study” to find a replacement for United which does not exist, would do much better to embrace the value that AUS represents as an access point to and from the globe. It’s a sales point for future economic development.

Studying The Past Won’t Change Reality. Unfortunately, a lot – heck, the majority – of ASD programs peddled to small communities today are still geared to an airline industry that simply no longer exists. Like programs that generate a lot of expensive data and heat maps that have no earthly connection with the emerging realities of the post-pandemic air transportation system.

For example, concepts such as “catchment areas” and “leakage studies” have nearly zero value within this evolution. Here’s a fact: there is no geographic boundary that determines which airport a consumer will, or will be likely, to use. The real determination is based on service alternatives available, and attainable at the local airport. If they are not there – and cannot be attracted due to the small size of the local community – the passengers driving to an alternative airport are not “leakage” – they are the passenger base of that larger airport.

Within the context of alternative options and regionalization of air access, such as at places like Killeen, and Muskegon and Topeka, these concepts are not only obsolete, they are nonsense.

The route cuts experienced in the past three months are a wake-up call for smaller airports across the nation. There will be future cuts in network carrier access. No number of studies or civic hubris will change the economic realities of air service, but airports have control of their own economic future.

In the meantime, there will be more air service pink slips. But there will also be more airports such as Austin, and Boise and Grand Rapids delivering strong new air access for wider regions of the nation.

Change Means Opportunity. At BGI, we’ve identified emerging air service shifts in all regions of the nation. Unlike other consulting firms, we constantly and independently research aviation trends. So, when our clients call, we’re ready.

Our team can assist in crafting a strategic plan that optimizes the future. Commercial air service is a part of the program, but it’s positioning the airport for the future trends in all areas of aviation that counts.

The future always daunting when it’s unknown. That’s where we come in.
____________________________________________________

ON BEHALF OF BOYD GROUP INTERNATIONAL, WE WANT TO WISH EVERYONE A VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS, A HAPPY HOLIDAY SEASON, AND GOOD HEALTH!

Air Service Access:
Change Can’t Be Stopped With Another Market Study
But Good News:
Air Service Isn’t The Only Area That’s Evolving

Heresy: There Is Life After Delta. And American. And United.  Actually, The Small Community Airport Future Has Never Been Brighter

It doesn’t take an MBA from Wharton to figure this one out.

We’re hearing the nasty sounds of air service “splat” spreading across the USA. Air service Humpty-Dumpties are coming down all over the place.

Delta Joins The Trend. This past week, Delta announced a range of route cuts from DTW, MSP and SLC. In this, they are completely red-lining at least two airports – Grand Junction and Lincoln – off their route map. American has dropped a number of feed routes from CLT and DFW. United has done the same at ORD and IAH.

It’s not just one-offs. It’s unmistakable proof that air transportation economics are shifting.

More Traditional ASD Programs Won’t Solve It. The reality that’s going to start hitting home at many communities is that all the king’s consultants and all the king’s desperate speed-date presentations, won’t put Humpty back on the wall. This air service egg has been scrambled for good.

The Fleet Projections Are Not To Be Ignored. Here are some numbers that need to be considered. Based on Boyd Group International fleet trend projections, the coming floor will be closer to 100 seats, as existing small jet airliners age and get recycled into Budweiser displays.

The average age of CRJ-200 airliners operating in the USA is 19.5 years…

Less than 50% of CRJ-200s built are still in active service (456) and all but 28 are in operation with just three USA small lift providers.

Of all the ERJ-135/145 airliners built, less than half are still in operation, and all but a handful at three USA small lift providers. Next year, they will be able to vote, with a current average age of 20.1 years.

The Mitsubishi MRJ, 80-100 seats, has been apparently cancelled.

The AVIC/CCP ARJ-21 from China is a lead-sled, and an embarrassment to the Chinese nation. (This airplane is a non-sequitur, but is mentioned only to hopefully avoid the gadfly emails.)

Boyd Group International forecasts indicate that we can likely expect another 125-150 CRJ/ERJ airliners to head to the desert by the end of 2022.

Conclusion, a lot more route pink slips coming.

With Emerging Aviation Dynamics, Small Airports Are In Better Shape Than May Be Expected. These fleet data mean that communities and regions across the nation need to re-think and re-plan to assure communication connectivity with the rest of the world, possibly in lieu of having scheduled flights at the local airport. Or more devastatingly accurate: having scheduled flights at the local airport that consumers might actually use.

Don’t misunderstand what’s happening: The yanking of 50-seat jets, or the pilot supply situation, or CCP-Covid are just a few of dozens of seen and unseen economic icebergs that are changing how air transportation will shift in the future. The message to every small and mid-size airport is that when a route is dropped, there likely isn’t any alternative airline option.

That’s ‘cause there usually are no other airlines out there.

Traditional ASD Programs Can Waste A Lot of Money In the Future. Let’s get real. For Lincoln, the elimination of Delta from the airport’s A&D boards won’t be remediated by a trip to a speed date conference. For Grand Junction, the loss of access to the Delta SLC connect hub can’t be replaced by the wondrous findings in another giant “leakage” study.

That’s because the bottom line is not just lack of traffic to meet the increasing revenue hurdles to support service. It’s lack of airlines, both in number and in fleets.  The “lack” is due to changing economics, and not shortage of flying machines or pilots.

Okay, Now’s The Future. It’s Called Airport Strategy Opportunity Reviews. The real issue for every small airport in the nation – whether it has commercial service or not – is to candidly and boldly take a look at every aspect of their operations and revenue streams, and match them to the emerging realities of future aviation. There are changes coming in general aviation. There are huge emerging opportunities in the area of executive aviation. Air delivery logistics are coming.

What’s unfortunate is that too many communities and airports are on automatic, assuming that the future is just going to be a continuation of the past. Wake up, please. Opportunities are emerging… just not in the same format as in the past.

Call BGI To Get A Jump On The Future. We could go into this in detail, but better give us a call or e-mail. Boyd Group International has assembled a team of associates that can analyze where an airport stands in regard to the new market dynamic trajectories. A team that works on the future, not tired and obsolete pre-CCP-Covid data.

This of course includes innovative analyses of air service issues. Be we go on to look at the rest of the opportunities that airports in the USA are facing in the midst of all these changes. Take a look at our team of associates… from regulatory changes to facility reviews, to market outreach, BGI has the expertise.

The new year will illuminate even more changes. Whether they are painful or are opportunities is usually a planning decision.

Let’s talk about the future!

_____________

On The Edge of Heresy

Battery/Electric Powered Aircraft:
There’s A Moral Responsibility To Consider

Over the next six months, all manner of paper mâché gurus will be tripping over each other to trumpet the next big thing in air transportation.

It’s called Advanced Air Mobility. The term “AAM” will be the next universal buzz-term for those in the know.

See, the panting projections are that there will be thousands of small, battery-powered air taxis whisking consumers silently and sustainably across metro areas and even entire regions. Sort of the 21^st century reincarnation of the Checker cab, only with VTOL capabilities.

According to those who seem to possess more than our mere-mortal vision, we’re going to see millions of people happily buzzing across metro areas and across regions in these little flying machines, decimating CO2 and bringing us to a new Utopia of clean, socially-acceptable transportation.

It’s The New Dogma. Do Not Bring Up Pesky Questions. Now, whatever you do, do not under any circumstances doubt this wondrous future. The science has been decided… the need has been defined… the picture is drawn and the future is certain. The assumptions are in stone. By 2030, electric air taxis will be the new modality for short-haul transportation, we are assured.

And, the exciting kicker, they tell us, is that it will clean up the environment and be “sustainable.”

Careful – Some of This Is Intellectual Kool-Aid. Sorry to rain on this intellectual parade, but standing as far away as necessary not to get a contact high from whatever is being smoked in these discussions, there are several facts not in evidence in the AAM rapture.

One is logistics. There are no hard estimates of cost of this new modality… or of necessary regulation where they can and can’t operate. Or, little things like air traffic control. Not inconsequential. Take a foggy day over New York City and think about it, with or without all the new technology that’s being assumed.

Oh, not to get too excited about the mobility thing. These aren’t like taxis that can take folks from a house in Flushing to the apartment on West 66th to visit Lucy and Desi. No, they only can operate between “vertiports” – which may be limited due to available space. (On the top of skyscrapers? Not likely. One suggestion in that direction, and the pictures from the New York Air helicopter crash on the Pan Am Building will be front and center in the Times.) Getting to and from vertiports isn’t like hailing a cab on the curb. Not to imply that there isn’t value in the air taxi concept, but there are differences.

The other point not to be mentioned – prepare for a heretical statement – is that battery power, based on current and expected technology is not “sustainable.” It is dependent on pulling minerals out of the ground, just like is the case with fossil fuels. The main difference is that the process for battery minerals is hugely problematic from all aspects.

What is ignored is any discussion of the environmental, social and security issues surrounding the production, life span and disposition of the batteries that supposedly make this AAM miracle possible. These are huge. Any cursory investigation of these aspects reveals that there is a lot more work that needs to be done before the visions of electric cars and planes and transportation should be advanced any further.

The Total Environmental and Social Costs Are Being Ignored. Do not misread this. There are roles for alternative power sources, and battery/electric is certainly one. But there are major fundamental problems that are being unconscionably ignored. Not just problems, but threats to the environment and to social justice and to national security in regard to battery technology.

For starters, do a quick search of the sources of cobalt- a necessary mineral for batteries under current technology. Take a look at how it is mined, who is doing it, and who is controlling it. Then draw your own conclusions.

Along with promulgation of the wonders of air taxis and short-haul flying, there is also the responsibility of assuring that these major challenges are aggressively resolved.

Here’s the bottom line: until these issues are addressed, the expansion and use battery power should be carefully restricted.

We’ve covered this in the latest Aviation Unscripted video, as well as an earlier review in May.

We’d strongly suggest that airports and communities take a look, because this will be a fundamental issue in future aviation facility development. Click here.

And don’t hesitate to let us know your thoughts.

_____________

Thanks To Our Sponsors!

Small Community Air Service –
The Solution Is Already Spreading
Ignoring Aviation Realities Just Delays Progress

To address a problem, it first has to be accurately understood. Otherwise, it’s not a “problem” but a confused situation.

That is pretty much where a lot of small and rural communities stand when it comes to scheduled air service. The “problem” is completely mis-diagnosed. Worse, there’s a number of quacks out there peddling “cures” that assure that it continues to be so.

First, we have the media, some of which tends to publish first and learn about the subject matter later.

Last week a business-related website published a tome led by the following shrieking headline:

“Some of the most remote areas in the US are losing an air service link to the rest of the country”

The only thing missing, aside from accuracy, was the exclamation point. Then they outlined the reason…

“With United Airlines’ planned exit from 11 airports across the US, many small communities are at risk of losing air service to the rest of the country.”

Not to put too fine a point on it, but this was flat-out fake news.

Not accurate. Mis-informed. Mis-leading. The main reason is that this outlet is clueless regarding what “air service to the rest of the country” really is. It assumes that no flights at the local airport is essentially isolation from the world. Veneer reporting.

Worse, like all fake news, it sends people on wild goose chases to find “solutions” to the wrong problems. That’s where the quacks come in, offering all manner of studies, “analyses,” surveys and other mechanisms that only obfuscate the real issue: the inexorable change in air service economics and in airline fleet capabilities, much of which are pointing to more access to and from the globe, not less.

The second point is important. The new fleets coming on line will deliver materially better air access than a lot of communities enjoy today… it just won’t necessarily always be at the local airport.

The United announcement is part of this evolution.

Access Is The Value. Not Local Flights. Scheduled air service at the local airport is too often considered about the same as having or not having running water. The truth is that air service quality is measured by access and availability of alternative options, not whether there are a couple of airline flights at the local airport.

Let’s look at the supposed air service disaster the article was referring to, i.e., the routes that United Airlines dropped. To make the point, we’ve included ABI and SJT, where United earlier took a powder, based on the same evolutionary dynamics.

Here’s the point – these moves are part of a much wider set of ongoing economic changes in air transportation economics that are currently in play… changes that will be bringing increased access to many regions across the country. Including most of the ones where these airports are located.

This certainly is not to imply that there aren’t small airports that today are served well below the level of passenger traffic they can generate. But the economic dynamics at other communities are not so – and for the airports in the above graphic, the airline has determined that to be the case.

Quick! Somebody Tell Kalamazoo That It’s Now “Remote” Getting back to sensationalist fake news, let’s start with this. None of the airports where United sent pink slips can be described as among the “most remote” in the U.S. That is clearly inaccurate.

Lansing, the capital of Michigan is not isolated from the rest of the world. It has access in roughly one hour to Grand Rapids, and around 90 minutes from Delta’s global connect hub at Detroit/Metro.

That brings up the time-to-airport issue.

Reality: most of eastern Nassau County on Long Island has at least as long and maybe a longer drive time to get to LGA than the drive between Killeen and Austin Bergstrom International Airport. That is not onerous for most of the communities dropped by United, particularly when that hour drive facilitates a shorter total travel time due to the presence of much higher levels of air service. Plus, all of these United-dropped airports have another carrier.

And all of them, based on the clear statements from the airline, are uneconomic for United. Trying to “lure” another connective network carrier isn’t in the cards. They are facing the same issues as does United, and taking the same actions in adjusting their route systems.

This Evolution Has Been Going On For Decades. Air service economics are evolving, and United’s decisions are part of that evolution. The fact is that 50-seat jets are going away, and there are no flying machines to replace them. This is nothing new – the march of fleet shifts has been in progress for 30 years. ATR-42s are gone. Same with J-41s and S-340s. CRJs and ERJs are just the latest in this evolution.

But folks at LAN and EVV and GRK will continue to fly in and out. What this means is that consolidation and regionalization of air access is the future. People will still be traveling, just not as many from some local community airports.

Actually, that future is already here. For example, it was reported that Killeen believes that something like 90% of consumers in its region are using Austin and IAH. Ignoring the reasons or papering them over with more “studies” won’t change the situation. AUS has air access that is far superior to most of what GRK can support locally.

Driving An Hour – Even Two – Can Be More Time-Effective Than Using Local Service. The consumer has spoken, and has been doing so for the last decade. An hour drive to AUS to get a nonstop to New York or California or Florida, is far superior to shoe-horning an itinerary to match 2-3 departures to a connecting hub. The point is that in many cases, the local airport simply is not consumer-competitive. In some cases, it is. But the majority of air access for Killeen consumers has gravitated to the superior qualitative and quantitative service available at much larger AUS. Not all, but most.

Another exciting core dynamic that is in play is fleet changes. Note: In play…. that means evolving. We have new-mission airliners coming on line, and combined with increased regionalization as 50-seaters are retired, the result will be incredibly better air access for just about all regions of the nation.

Don’t Give Up… Just Accept The Airport’s New Role. Yes, this is a hard thing to accept for some communities. But it’s taking place, regardless of the number of “true market studies” or “leakage analyses” that in any case only measure pre-CCP-Covid traffic, and will do nothing to stop the economic reality of consolidated air service.

Economic Roles For Rural & Small Community Airports Are Expanding. Nevertheless, in many cases there can be a firm role of local air service, even when 90% of the consumer base is driving to that larger airport 90 minutes away.

The point is not to be hornswaggled into believing the trend can be reversed by attending a speed-date event, or another jive market study that has no relationship to the emerging airline industry. Run with the realities, instead of trying to reverse them.

Today, the economic development opportunities at airports such as we’re discussing are frankly huge, what with the changes in aviation support needs with the entry of new technologies and migration of commercial businesses from ineptly-managed large metro areas.

Log On, Spend Seven Minutes & Get New Perspectives. We’ve covered this in the latest Aviation Unscripted™ video. Invest seven minutes and log on.

We name names. Or, at least some airport names. You might be surprised… remember, major demographic shifts are in progress, too.

Take a look… and let us know your thoughts.

Looking For Straight Economic & Air Service Forecast Assistance? Contact BGI.  Yes, the above is not what most consultants might illuminate. But BGI is not like other consultants.

We help our clients prepare for the future, not cling to the past. Airports know we tell the truth about the future.

When we work with clients in air access consulting projects, we’re laser-focused and concentrate on the airline-related factors that will determine air service in the future. Before we take a project, we assure that we are completely aligned with the client and all realities are on the table.

Airports and communities that want to plan for the new future, give us a call. We have the team that can keep you out of the planning quicksand and into the realities that are emerging across aviation.

Hit the contact button above and let’s start moving into the future.

_____________________

On behalf of all of us at Boyd Group International, we wish everyone a happy and healthy US Thanksgiving holiday!