Moving From Ambient Thinking To Futurist Planning

On November 15, 2016, the expected and accepted future of intercontinental air transportation got torpedoed.

Boom Technologies rolled out the full-scale model of its XB-1 supersonic demonstrator. It’s a one-third scale of its planned 45-50 seat Boom Airliner that is well under development.

The concept is a 2.2 Mach intercontinental airliner that will carry what is today front-cabin passengers across the Atlantic and Pacific in less than half the time of current airliners – and do so at fare levels commensurate with today’s business class prices.

The potential viability of the Boom concept was underscored by the range of leading aviation entities in attendance. General Electric, Honeywell, Rolls-Royce, NASA. Everyone was also honored to have the presence of some of the original engineers who actually were on the Concorde project many years ago.

Think of It Like The Front Cabin of A 777 That Flies Supersonic. Unlike the Concorde, the Boom Airliner is not envisioned to be one that will cater only to thin layers of high-roller traffic, paying an astronomical fare. Instead, the Boom Airliner simply will capture existing front-cabin traffic, at ambient premium fare levels.

No, there will not be full-flatbed seats with lush duvets for sweet dreams while crossing the ocean. No double-meal catering.

There won’t be time for these amenities – which are there only because the consumer is trapped in the 777 for eight hours. Lovely, lush, and comfortable. But there are two considerations: first, it costs the airline tens of millions to develop and deliver these amenities, and second, the time in the air allows this “entertainment.”

The Boom Airliner will not inflict the need to have seating that takes up the space of a suburban Japanese garden, and chairs that cost as much as a small tract house in rural Ohio. The need to stock several phases of gourmet food into galleys with the complexity of a McDonalds, will be an expense that also won’t be necessary.

With a just over three hours between New York and London, the service will be more like domestic first class.

The Passenger Segment Already Exists. The Boom Airliner will simply capture the current folks sitting in the front end of 777s, A-330s, and 767s. The premium customer will have two choices – ride an extra three or four hours and get a four-course meal finished off with creame brulee en crute, or be in London to do business three hours earlier.

It’s a no brainer. This airliner is going to change how premium customers fly. It will be a challenge to future airline strategies.

It also means that the intercontinental airlines that are first-to-market with this new airliner, will drain this premium traffic from competitors – regardless of frequent flyer loyalty. And by the way, that first-to-market carrier is already on the horizon: Virgin Atlantic has an option for the first ten Boon Airliners, expected to come off the assembly line starting in 2023.

The Concorde Experience Is Ancient History. And Ancient Technology. It’s understandable that a lot of folks in aviation are commenting that the Boom project is just another pipe dream. After all, they point out, the Concorde was a financial fiasco. In point of fact, this observation regarding the British-French product is entirely accurate.

While Concorde was a techno-marvel for its time, it stands as an example to incredibly closed-minded and poor market planning. In fact, it’s earned a place in a great book titled World’s Greatest Planning Disasters.

Re-Thinking Reheat. In addition, the comment also is made that there is no existing power plant adaptable to the Boom Airliner. It’s a comment made by folks who in reality couldn’t tell the difference between a jet engine and a Studebaker V-8.

One of the key advantages of the Boom Airliner that it does encompass an existing engine core, and can attain 2.2 Mach without use of an afterburner – also referred to as “reheat” by engineers in the Mother Country. Here’s a ice-breaker conversation starter for the next boring cocktail party: when in after burner, Concorde burned 78% more fuel, and for all that it gained 17% more thrust.

Here’s some reality: Next year marks the 50th anniversary of the roll-out of the Concorde. That’s half a century ago.

To compare the Boom Airliner to the Concorde is flat ridiculous. To maintain that the Concorde proved “it couldn’t be done” is akin to the folks who probably told Lindbergh not to take off, because so many others had splattered themselves trying to cross the Atlantic.

As an aside, one of BGI’s colleagues, Fred Johnson, was a trained mechanic instructor on the Concorde, when Braniff operated the aircraft in 1978-80. His take on the Concorde was that it was some of the finest examples of the best of 1960s technology.

Point: In September, at the IAFS, the world got a glimpse of the future of intercontinental air travel. On November 15, it became official: Supersonic is the future.

THE MONDAY FLASH – INSIGHTS & PERSPECTIVES

October 31, 2016

Congratulations To Ontario!

Tomorrow ONT enters a whole new phase as a gateway to Southern California, independent from Los Angeles World Airports.

At a time when the entire global air transportations system is dealing with new traffic flows, the future for Ontario is exciting… to say the least.

Our congratulations to Kelly Fredericks and his team!

______________

Coming – Re-thinking Cabin Safety Instruction

The American Airlines incident at ORD, where (apparently) a catastrophic engine failure caused an aborted take-off, is likely to change the approach to in-cabin safety announcements.

Take a look at the pictures – passengers were taking their carry-on luggage with them – stopping to take it out of the overhead, through the cabin, and down the emergency slide… some clowns in the cabin of the burning aircraft were actually taking phone-videos.

All while the right wing was engulfed in flames and half of the emergency exits were blocked.

It’s clear that passengers are not taking these instructions seriously – regardless of comedic approaches to getting the information across. The subject matter is dry and airlines have correctly attempted to get passenger attention with innovative approaches to demonstrating safety.

But in light of the Chicago incident – it’s clear that even on AA – which at least historically has pretty much kept the videos more straight forward – passengers just don’t get it.

Point: it’s likely that any safety videos in the future will be given a lot more pre-installed scrutiny in regard to effectiveness to the message across.

_____________________

Second Quarter 2016 Data:

What The Numbers Really Illuminate

The challenge with any sets of data is not reading the numbers, but ascertaining their value in determining current and future trends.

That’s the foundation of Aviation DataMiner™ – and what sets this business intelligence platform apart from other sources. The 2^nd quarter 2016 DOT data is out, and, as usual, the media is abuzz making vapor-brained comparisons between numbers they don’t understand in the first place.

There are the perfunctory stories – put out by reporters who are clueless about what they’re writing about – that compare one airport’s fares against the “national average” – which is about as meaningful as comparing the performance of the Chicago Cubs to the Chicago Bears.

Using The Data, Not Just Parroting Them. At BGI, we help our clients see the future, not read tables of numbers from the DOT.

Here are the key metrics to monitor in this data. (The first requirement, however, is to have a professional knowledge of the data and the system that delivers it.)

• Airline Trends: It’s more than raw ASM/ASK production – it’s where it takes place, and the number of flights that are generating it. Plus, this is not a product-cohesive industry – if Spirit has a 20% increase in departure production, and United has -5% decrease, the average is not a valid metric.
• Fleet Trends: In the 2^nd quarter, the continued move toward larger units of capacity was demonstrated. For those playing the ASD home game, without any understanding the airline strategies, they miss the fundamental issues of fleet changes by airline brand. For just one example, we’ve seen both United and American start to re-plan for a world without 37-seat turboprops… this needs to be a message in regard to future air access planning.
• Airline Corporate Strategies: Understanding what airlines are announcing from the front office can help determine the value of reported data. For example, the attendees at the 21^st International Aviation Forecast Summit this year got insights on the very difference fleet planning strategies at Frontier v Spirit.
• Capacity Trends: To start with, the US air transportation system is not growing… like, not at all. The number of departures in the 1Q of 2016 was up just 1% – which is statistical noise.

The message is which airlines added departures – regardless of the fact that the industry as a whole added just 1%. Seats were up about 3.5%, but that’s not to accommodate more demand, but simply due to the increasing size of the average aircraft in major brand fleets. And, again, it’s who is shifting capacity that tells the story.

• Revenue Trends: The take-away here for airport planners is that in a shrinking airline industry, with larger average aircraft, the name of the game will be revenue-quality, and not just traffic volume. Furthermore, we’ve seen both United and American start to re-plan for a world without 37-seat turboprops… this needs to be a message in regard to future air access.

These are important factors – ones not even vaguely addressed in stock ASD “studies” and “consumer surveys” that are semi-ethically foisted on airports containing veneer gotcha questions (“will you use the local airport if we have flights to Newark?”) – without any further discussion of what that service will be.)

For aviation planning professionals, we’d recommend a review of Aviation DataMiner™ as your source of industry business intelligence. The range of reports and the flexibility of DataMiner™ delivers strategic planning – not just tables. Click here for more information & a free trial subscription.

_______________________

October 24, 2016

Touch ‘N Go – Air Access Update

Congratulations to New Orleans on recruiting British Airways flights to London, starting next March. BGI is proud to have worked with MSY in these efforts.

This international service joins Condor, which will be operating to Germany from New Orleans this summer, another project in which Boyd Group International was involved. Our advanced forecast and strategic planning expertise, such as the concept of illuminating the “road-hubbing” dynamic  that nonstop international service generates, was a core reason for these successes.

Our client Ithaca will be seeing larger American Airlines aircraft this spring, as the carrier concentrates Southern Tier service into that airport. We are honored to have worked with ITH in its strategic air service planning.

These events join our successful efforts that have led to air service access improvements in the past few months, including implementation of highly-successful AA service between DFW and Bozeman, and a SCASD grant that’s made access to AA/Phoenix possible from Santa Fe.

And as we noted last week, working with entities in Colorado Springs helped attract Frontier back into town, now with flights to Orlando, Phoenix and Las Vegas.

This is what sets Boyd Group International apart from other consultants. We are experts on airline strategies, and we have the respect of airline industry leaders.  Plus, we have better data – including the only airport traffic and trend forecasts accomplished in the private sector.

If your community is focused on results, not endless “studies,” give BGI a call to discuss your air access issues. As our clients will tell you, we will give you the facts as-is and where is.

__________

The Administration’s New “Competition” Directives

Just a little bait-and-switch…. But at least this time the switch had some value.

Last week, we all waited to hear about the carefully media-packaged directives that would be coming out from the depths of the Obama Administration to enhance airline competition for consumers.

What finally oozed out, in a shower of high-sounding, empty-suit press releases, was basically a requirement for airlines to refund bag fees when they screw up, for airlines to report on-time data for all of their branded flights, and some gobbledy-gook about making total cost of air travel transparent.

Nothing about competition, but at least it was generally positive.

As for the bag fee refunds, it should be embarrassing to the airline industry that the DOT filled this regulatory gap.  To take money in exchange for handling a passenger’s Samsonite would imply a commitment and a de facto contract to do what is expected when a bag is checked – to get it to the customer at the other end of the flight. If that fails, the airline should refund the dough.

Whether or not some airlines may have already been doing this is not the issue. The DOT saw a chance to regulate, and they jumped at it.

Data Not Understood. The biggie, however, that has the lightweight media all in a dither, is the requirement for airlines to report “on-time” performance for all of their flights, not just the ones operated under the brand-name operator’s certificate.  Because of the DOT’s 19^th century reporting system, they still think “certificated carrier” is the same as “airline.”  (So does most of the media as well as the academics that churn out “quality” reports every year.)

The media saw the term “regional airlines” in the directive and proceeded to charge off into the weeds, with lush stories about how this will reveal the sorry state of schedule performance in “regional” markets. That’s because, as we all know, that these “regional airlines” just fly to “regional” markets.

Silly Headlines…We’ve been regaled with misleading headlines, like “Airline On-Time About To Get Worse” – clearly demonstrating that knowledge of the subject matter is  not a job requirement. Since these reporters are clueless of how and where these “regional airline” assets are used, to make such as statement again cautions us to be suspect of much of the veneer stuff that gets onto the wire. The fact is that they have no idea regarding what the actual numbers might be, but they see “regional” and assume that it’s all small airports, and all substandard performance.

Point: the on-time performance of the industry won’t change. It’s just that more of it will be reported. But to read these dimbulb headlines, one would think that we’re about to see more and more delayed flights because of new disclosure requirement.

It’s another reason that much of what’s regurgitated by the media is about as reliable as the information from a third-rate used car lot. What these writers – many from big-name news sources – don’t know is that these “regional airlines” are neither regional nor airlines, and they provide lift that is used in markets such as Denver-Phoenix, Chicago-Atlanta, and Denver-DFW. Real “regional” cities.

But nonetheless, knowledge of the subject matter isn’t much of a requirement, anymore.

By the way, subscribers to Aviation DataMiner™ have always had more accurate on-time data, because we re-map the information to reflect where “regionals” are flying for majors. Unfortunately, much of the “regional airline” data doesn’t exist, because operators of 50-seat and smaller airliners up until now have not reported any such data. The academics that slush out airline reports and the see-it-and-regurgitate-it media don’t bother with this bit of information.

As for the gobbledy-gook from the DOT about full transparency of the cost of travel, the fat is in the fire for the airline industry. Regardless of any philosophical concepts about “re-regulation” it is clear that the DOT is going to do something in this area unless the industry jumps to it first. Consumers don’t always have a clear idea of the cost of a flight, and even if it’s just 1% of customers, it’s an opportunity for the feds to get involved.

And that’s usually not good for anybody.

Welcome to…

Boyd Group International is developing the premier source of forecast and trend projections regarding China-US aviation. We’ll be taking independent reviews of all aspects of the China market, and developing new analyses and forecasts

China-US Visitor Forecast 2016 – 2025, Click here

Bringing China To Your Community…

… And Your Community To China!

Communities and their airports and commercial stakeholders can join together to become centroids of Chinese visitation in the USA. We can show you how.

China-Welcome™ On-Site Seminars

These include discussions of cultural differences and cultural expectations, but we go much further. We tailor the program specifically to your community, and outline how stake holders can accommodate the expectations of Chinese visitors.

How your community can take proactive advantage in making itself more China-Welcome™ than other points.

We cover the issues of what is needed to handle movements of Chinese travelers, things such as availability of motorcoach parking, adjusting tour venues to the behavior and attributes of these consumers. Little things, such as having venue-specific souvenirs they can take back – and ones not “Made In China,” either. (Finding such items can be a lot harder than one might think!)

At the end of the seminar, the community will have a much better idea of the opportunity, and how to better prepare and be China-Welcome™

China Welcome-&-Ready™ Audits

Making the entire experience at your community and airport China-Welcome™ is a lot less complex and expensive than you might think.

Our team will visit your airport & community, and do a complete audit of:

The travel “touch points” – where Chinese visitors would expect/need guidance within their flow to and through your community.

From arrival at the airport, to transfer through the community, to venue and hotel accommodations, we can show where cost-effective communication systems can be implemented.

Key venues/attraction communication. Having basic materials – menus, travel information, emergency information, and just pure welcome documents – ready and at their easy access.

China-Welcome™ accommodation at hotels and hospitality points – the culturally-expected Chinese touches.

Chinese-Language Announcements & Way-finding – Efficient, targeted systems of PA terminal, gate, and baggage claim announcements, geared to specific needs of Chinese visitors and to the airport.

International & China Air-Connectivity Analyses

With the increasing number of new nonstop flights from more Chinese cities to the USA, developing seamless connectivity from the gateway portal airport to your airport will be essential in attracting this new travel segment.

Boyd Group International is the leader in forecasting and research of the burgeoning China-US marketplace, and we’ll prepare an analysis of the connectivity-efficiency your local airport experiences with key points in China.

This is critical for two reasons. The first is that this is an essential part of targeted marketing for Chinese consumers – understanding that they can get to your community easily and seamlessly in regard to flight connections. The second reason is that this audit will reveal where strategic and tactical activities are needed, such as working with incumbent network carriers in regard to flight connectivity, and – most importantly – working with the connecting hub airport to assure that signage and assistance is in place to guide Chinese travelers.

The final report will be a complete China-Connectivity Blueprint for your airport to move ahead of other competing communities. We would note that this program will examine and analyze all international connectivity, and include recommendations for these options as well.

Showcasing Your Community – And Your Airport – In China

Today, over 50% of all international Chinese travel is initiated on smartphones. That means China NiHao can put your community right in the pockets of Chinese consumers, with a range of modalities, from a scalable WeChat page to inclusion in systems such as Baidu, to locally-hosted and maintained websites in China.

For example, a relatively simple WeChat page for your community can deliver jus about everything the consumer needs to know about your destination. In effect, it’s like having local Chinese signage in your region, except it’s right on the visitor’s smartphone – before he or she even arrives at you airport.

The Boyd Group International team has a wide range of digital-channel modalities that will make your community a preferred destination among Chinese visitors.

Contact Us Today,
And Start Getting China-Welcome™!

Boyd Group International is now delivering programs to airports and communities in developing programs that can deliver enormous new economic impact, and developing cost-effective programs to accommodate these travelers when they arrive.

Click here to request more information, and to get your share of this new traffic demand.

The principals of China NiHao are at the forefront of the emerging China travel and aviation industries.

It’s more than just data – it’s the expertise both in the US and in China that delivers this traffic to US destinations that prepare.

Here is the team that can deliver China to your community, and which can profile your destination within China.

To get more information on how we can tailor a China-Welcome Program to your community and airport, and to discuss how we can actually craft programs to deliver Chinese visitors, click here let’s talk! Also, Click Here to go back to the main China NiHao page.

The next Big Thing in US air service growth

– for large airports and regional airports, too –

the influx of visitors from the Middle Kingdom…

… And they want to visit your region of the nation. But only if they know who you are, and you’re ready to welcome them.

Introducing our Partner, China Ni Hao, LLC!

Engage China Ni Hao, LLC., & Engage China. There’s more and more nonstops from Chinese cities to the US, and there will be an explosion in Chinese tourists that will be connecting on to key US visitation points, such as Spokane, Bangor, Sarasota, Reno, and New Orleans.

That means that US communities airports are a key part of the mix. Aggressive strategic planning to assure connectivity is just one part. Being China-Welcome, with considerations such as smoothing communication touch-points is also critical.

Recruiting China Air Access – Engaging Our Clients. Boyd Group International, already a leader in analysis and forecasting of China traffic and aviation, has joined the aggressive new team of China-related experts at China NiHao™ LLC., in crafting programs to make airports and communities China-Welcome™.

Here’s an important point to understand. Today, the China-US passenger traffic represents less than 10% of the latent demand. The barrier has been lack of capacity from key Chinese commercial centers to the USA.

That’s changing rapidly… and it will be mid-size as well as large US points that prepare now, that will be in the cross-hairs for more China nonstop.

BGI, based on our understanding of the China market, has new-approach programs to build China-US air service access. BGI is the only consulting firm that accomplishes air traffic demand forecasts for China, and for the USA.

Our Airports:China forecasts cover the 50 largest airports in China – over 92% of all traffic in the Middle Kingdom – and include projections of potential for new and expanded service from key commercial centers in China to points across the USA

Nonstops From China? It’s Not Just Large US Hubsites In The Picture. Our approach is very different from the traditional approach to recruiting China air service. Our knowledge of both the China and the US aviation marketplace allows BGI to identify where there are future communities of air service potential – by market and by airline. Remember, the enormous growth in the Chinese airline industry represents opportunities for nonstop service to many key industrial centers in the USA – and not just hubsites like Atlanta, San Francisco and Chicago.

Emerging Chinese carriers will be exploring new US opportunities – and Boyd Group International can match this with our US client airports. Add to that the expected explosion of capacity with the addition of the new Beijing Daxing International Airport, and it’s clear that US airports that have aggressive and targeted data and outreach will be in line for nonstop to the Middle Kingdom.

The Chinese Are Coming – But Only To Destinations That Are Ready.

This year, over 3 million Chinese will visit the USA – that’s up from barely 200,000 just a decade ago. They’re traveling not just Disneyland and Broadway, but places like the Thousand Islands of New York State, and the Amish country of Pennsylvania, Moab, The French Quarter, The Alamo, and Mount Rushmore.

More and more will be traveling to these places by air, connecting beyond the US gateway hub.

And they each spend on average over $4,000 in the US, not including travel.

And here’s the kicker – this is just a trickle. Airports:China™ forecasts by Boyd Group International indicate that in 2015, the US actually experienced less than 6% of the potential demand from the fifteen largest Chinese cities, outside of Beijing and Shanghai.

Contact Us For Information On How We Can Literally Showcase Your Airport & Region In China

Is your community and airport competitive in reaching out and accommodating this new emerging segment?

China NiHao is now delivering programs to airports and communities in developing a presence in the China consumer market, and developing cost-effective programs to accommodate these travelers when the arrive.

Click here to take a look at the range of services we offer.

From China-awareness seminars, to international & Chinese connectivity air service analyses, to Chinese-language websites hosted managed in China, to aggressive marking programs on Chinese digital channels, we have the programs.

Quarterly Analytics For Airport Professionals

Here’s a hard truth: if you are using any other source of quarterly airport data, you’re probably drawing inaccurate conclusions from incomplete data.

Most sources that sell quarterly reports simply download raw BTS data – which anybody can do for free – and proceed to sort it into a plethora of tables and graphs, and then charge airports exorbitant fees.

They deliver lots of comparisons, maybe, but no real analytical efforts.

Fact: BTS DB1B O&D Data Are Not Complete. So, neither are reports that rely on them exclusively. They miss a lot of information – which is something that many sources of quarterly data probably don’t even know.

A 10% Sample – But Not of All Tickets Sold.  In the purest sense, DB1B data is a set of specific facts extracted from passenger tickets – and what most other sources fail to disclose is that not all tickets used in a quarter are included, just some of them.

Not only that, but it’s further complicated because not all US certificated passenger carriers participate in the sample.

Therefore, the DB1B data other quarterly products rely on are just a 10% sample of less than 100% of all tickets. So those reports are not fully representative of the airline industry.

Aviation DataMiner – Analytics, Instead of Raw Internet Tables. What makes our data better and more accurate is that our advanced Aviation DataMiner system aggregates DB1B information with other  sources of passenger traffic and airline schedules, which results in a more complete database – and a better planning tool for aviation professionals.

Let’s take Shreveport, comparing raw BTS numbers – which other vendors sell after getting downloading them for free – with the fully-reconciled data delivered by the BGI Key Performance Metrics report. The period is full year ending 2Q 2015.

Take a look – in just the top ten metro O&D markets, the raw BTS numbers are over five percent off – in some markets, much more.

This also means that other metrics – such as average fares, yields, trip origination, etc. will also be skewed in the raw and incomplete DB1B data.

The point is that delivering accurate, professional data requires a lot more effort and expertise than just parroting a single federal source.

As with all government data, it’s critical that the reader have a full understanding of what the data represents, how it’s reported, and where the shortfalls are. It’s not for amateurs.

What Sets BGI Ahead: We’re An Aviation Data Company. Boyd Group International is focused as a data and research company. Most of the other sources of “quarterlies” just pull raw – and partial – data off the internet, and pass it off as-is.

Key Performance Metrics – Instead of Pages of Numbers

Volumes of tables and lists are not a planning tool.

The reports in the Key Performance Metrics deliver a wide swath of important analytical insights relating to the airport. For example, here’s what is included with the report on top markets. It’s been split into two sections to fit, by the way…

Okay. Time To Take A Closer Look.

We’ve done a short tour of Key Performance Metrics. Just click here to take a look.

Then, fill out the form below – or just send us an e-mail – and we can start your subscription right away.

If you’re subscribing to another quarterly source, revisit your budget. Even with the superior quality and professionalism of the Boyd Group International Key Performance Metrics, you’ll have several thousand dollars left at the end of the year. Some other sources charge $8,000 or more for what’s essentially public – and not entirely complete – information.

Key Performance Metrics is just $4,450 for a year’s subscription – and that includes a short term forecast every quarter included.

Oh, and by the way… you may want to consider an on-line subscription to Aviation DataMiner, too. It gives enormous analytical access to all airport metrics, as well as schedules and hundreds of reports.