United’s SST Order: No, It’s Not Concorde Phase II

Almost on que, right after last week’s Monday Insight regarding how the failure of the Aerion business jet project was not an indicator of supersonic demise, United announced an order for up to 50 Boom airliners.

That made us feel pretty good.

Forecasting Means Running Counter To The Consensus. We would point out that Boyd Group International was the only aviation consulting and research firm to have projected a positive market potential for the Boom Overture airliner.

Back in 2015-2016, when presented with the concept, and after exploring the foundational assumptions, it was clear that this was not another excursion into fantasy, but one that made core market sense. In particular, Boom was aimed at an airplane that would improve the time-efficiency of air travel.

This intrinsically involved the need for flight speed exceeding that of sound as one of the design imperatives.

Unlike the Concorde, Aerion, and other projects, the goal was not to simply build a flying machine that could pop through the sound barrier.

It was also a concept that was to rely on ambient technology… including powerplants.

Boom? In Our Fraternity? There were some raised eyebrows back in 2016 when we included Boom along with Airbus, Boeing, Embraer, Bombardier and Mitsubishi in the global airliner manufacturer segments of the International Aviation Forecast Summit.  Boom who? Was the question. Most people had not heard of the company. They have now.

Asking Hard Questions Is Not Negativity. But Don’t Start With Trendy Answers. There still is a lot of skepticism regarding the Boom Overture. That is understandable… it’s five years away, and a lot can happen in the air transportation industry. Those kinds of concerns are positive and natural to explore.

But the one thing that gets really old is the oh-so-confident comparisons to the Concorde. Other than being supersonic, the Concorde has no commonality with the Boom project. None. Not in regard to technology. Not in regard to market mission. Not in regard to the air transportation system it will operate within. Not in regard to airline economics.

Not in regard to anything.

It is flat-out ridiculous to compare an airliner that rolled out of the hangar in 1967 with one that will be flying in 2026.

Yes, lots challenges ahead for Boom. But in the meantime, the interest from United and Japan Airlines will have other carriers looking.

Nobody anymore is asking, Boom who?

At BGI we are proud to have been associated with this breakthrough aviation leader.

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This Week’s Aviation Unscripted

A Review: The CCP-Pandemic Damage To U.S. Airports & Aviation

It’s a hoot watching some sectors of the media desperately scrambling to find the rewind button.

Back in August, an Aviation Unscripted video covered the background of how the criminals running China colluded to cover-up the corona virus epidemic in Wuhan. The evidence and events were as obvious as a Big Mac at a vegan wedding.

We reviewed the major damage that the CCP-Wuhan pandemic had inflicted on U.S. airports. We recommended that airports and communities start taking stock, and consider options to go after the estimated $150 billion in Chinese investment in the U.S. And do keep in mind that if it’s a Chinese company, the CCP – the political party running China and which caused this disaster – is involved. These businesses are fair game.

But most of the media simply declared that such data were “debunked.” They issued clear directions: This virus simply came from a pangolin or another infected creature in a wet market. No evidence of any hanky-panky on the part of the low lifes running China.

Oops. Maybe There’s More. Let’s get politically-incorrect, but functionally accurate: some major news outlets went to great lengths to twist the facts, or just ignore them, and instruct we, the Great Unwashed out in TV land, to take their word for it. No, little people, it didn’t come from Wuhan, not really. No, you peons, the WHO and the CCP didn’t dither, cover-up and allow the epidemic to expand. Don’t dare look stupid to imply that our reporting is bogus.

One supposed “news magazine” went to lengths to interview a noted virologist, who categorically denied the Wuhan Institute of Virology could have had anything to do with the pandemic. What the award-winning interviewer left out was that the guy was running an organization that was actually funding and working with the Institute. Just a little conflict of interest.

Holy Lab Leak, Batman… now it seems that the evidence has come over the transom that the CCP and the WHO, and yes, some of the talking heads in the media, were flat out lying. More and more evidence, and more and more “experts” backtracking what they told us last year with total confidence.

Now with renewed calls for demanding recompense from the CCP, it would be appropriate to once again review the background and facts regarding how this pandemic was allowed to financially torpedo airlines and airports across the USA.

There is no doubt that the CCP is not only criminally responsible for this pandemic, but financially liable. U.S. communities need to go for their financial throats.

Log on to Aviation Unscripted this Thursday, June 10. We’ll be rerunning the August video, containing a lot of now un-debunked facts.

Another reason to question a lot of what some corners of the media are spouting.
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Breeze – Brazen Airline Planning Heresy

Last month, we put on line an edition of Aviation Unscripted that outlined how many traditional air service planning metrics have not just changed, but are completely gone.

The video quickly outlines how many core metrics, economics, airline strategies, and consumer trends that were the bedrock of air transportation are no longer in play.

Along these lines, get ready for some fun media action this week. Start-up Breeze Airways has announced several of its initial routes. They validate the fact that in regard to applications of air travel as a communication modality, it’s a new day. A new day that won’t fit into the traditional assumptions of air transportation planning.

Some new Breeze routes are to Tampa, where traffic stimulation is always in play. But the majority are between cities that on the surface – and based on existing data – have traffic demand roughly equivalent to the capacity of a Ford Econovan.

Absolute Heretical Craziness. And certainly there will be the media gurus who will consult the oracles of raw and unrefined data, a.k.a. the DOT O&D tables. They will read the passenger numbers registered in these city pairs during the robust, pre-CCP Covid year of 2019, and will conclude that David Neeleman and his entire Breeze team have donned Star Trek uniforms and are begging Scotty to beam them up from reality.

Plan on hearing stuff like, “Charleston, SC to Akron/Canton? Lunacy! There are barely ten – total – people going between these cities each day.” Columbus – Hartford/Springfield has less than 22 passengers reported as going each way, each day. “That’s about a 30% load factor on a single Breeze E-190, and there are three other airlines – big guys, including Southwest – offering competing, albeit connecting, service. This is nuts.”

We could go on. There’s amusement in these lightweights.

And we’re not referencing the folks at Breeze. It’s the media types who don’t have a clue regarding either the evolving air service market, new generation airliner platforms, or even how to read DOT data, let alone understanding what those numbers represent.

At Boyd Group International, we’ve been advising our clients to tumble to the fact that many of the traditional planning assumptions are gone. Many of the traditional drivers of air travel are gone, too. Breeze is a clear example. There will be more.

DOT O&D Data Is Not The Same As “Demand”. Here’s a message regarding DOT O&D data. These tables are indicative (and often in error) of the consumers who use air transportation between specific points, based on the characteristics of the air service options between those cities. And that is determined by several factors. In the markets chosen by Breeze, these entail the ease or lack of same of the flight options, the transit time (including connections) and, importantly, the cost.

If any of those change, it will affect the number of consumers choosing to travel.

Breeze is fixin’ to send a lightning bolt or two into the moribund demand factors in a whole passel of new nonstop markets.

In a number of the markets that Breeze is planning, the convenience of using air travel today is just a shade ahead of a wagon train. And in most cases the fares are stratospheric.

Now, Getting To The Bar Mitzvah Is Possible. There’s no question that nonstop Breeze flights in these markets will tend to stimulate some business traffic. But the real play will be in opening city pairs where personal travel – a deep subset, perhaps, of what is lumped together as “leisure” traffic – will be able to use air transportation where until now there were few market-viable options.

Yes, BDL and PIT are very nice places, but regardless of the fare, nonstop flights on Breeze are not going to turn the route into a major vacation option.

The real market for Breeze will be consumers in these cities who will find attending that the wedding in Akron/Canton is no longer out of financial reach. Or heading to a graduation or Grandma’s birthday in Louisville. Or just to visit relatives in Norfolk when before now, it was too time consuming and too damaging to the bank account to even consider. The true demand is not yet known, because the levels of air access were an obstacle course in time-consuming schedules, high fares, and massive inconvenience.

It’s Being Partially Tried By Other Carriers, Too. We covered this in a recent Aviation Unscripted video. American is adding Dayton – Orlando, where there is only O&D traffic, and no AA flow connections. United is planning a spread of O&D nonstops between Portland, Maine and places like Milwaukee and Columbus. The fact is that the true demand these nonstop flights will develop is unknown because until now the hassle of existing air transportation precluded it. The difference with the Breeze strategy is adding in low fares, which changes the equation from the approach at AA and UA. Big time.

New Generation Airliner Platforms Make This Possible. Now, this does not mean the end of the hub-and-spoke system, as some mushroom-basement academics will likely announce. It simply means that there are additional places where new-generation, multi-mission airliners (like, say, the 80 A220s that Breeze has on order) can generate net new revenues. True, network carriers can do this with current fleets of CRJs or ERJs, but that tends to make the pricing component more difficult.

New Consumer Stratas, Too. As we’ve covered via video at Aviation Unscripted, there are now four consumer air travel sectors. Business, Vacation/Leisure, Personal, and Impulse.

Breeze covers all of these, but the biggest one is personal travel. The operating costs of the A220 will be a major factor in making these new markets possible. If you’ve not seen it, click on the icon or click here.

Rational Growth Plan. As of now, Breeze has a fleet plan for a lot of iron… nine E-190s now in-fleet and an order for 80 A-220-300s, the latter of which are the most mission-flexible in the sky.

Of interest is that the initial plan for Breeze is not to blot out the sun with new A220s. The plan appears to be two units added by the end of 2021, and only 11 more coming from the factory in 2022. Apparently another 17 the year after, plus it’s likely the initial 9 E-190/195s will be phased out.

Yes, It Can Work. Naturally, it is possible, and maybe likely, that some of the market choices won’t work out. But with a rational fleet strategy such as this, the program is clearly well planned.

Bank on it: it will succeed.

Planning For The New Future? We’re Ready. Boyd Group International is at the cutting edge of the new trends that will be creating the new post CCP-Covid air transportation system.

We focus on tomorrow – so for air access planning and futurist traffic demand and trend forecasts, give us a call.

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Air Traffic Growth Trends:

Don’t Misread The Clouds on The Horizon.
Expansion’s Coming. But Just Not Where Traditionally Expected.

As of today, it appears that capacity in June will likely be around 80% of that in the same month of 2019.

As the CCP-Covid pandemic continues to recede (or, at least until the incredible, unfocused political hype surrounding it runs out of steam) it is natural to find consumers going back to leisure travel.

But amid all the media stories about the crowds and “surge” expected this summer, it’s still a spike off of a materially lower travel base. The economy has changed. Therefore, the role and location and applications of air transportation will change also.

To be clear, the increase in capacity does not necessarily mean a corresponding increase in enplanements. Allegiant in April had the majority of its fleet back in the skies, but with a reported 60% load factor. They are planning for the future.

The only real unknown is the level to which business travel will return. Some are predicting that it will be at or near 2019 levels. This, unfortunately, ignores the fact that electronic communication was already eating into the value of air travel as a business channel. The CCP-Covid episode served to shove it into overdrive.

The Value of Business Travel Has Changed. One bottom line that tends to be missed in such projections is that, simply put, a substantial portion of business travel was undertaken because there were no other communication modalities that allowed people to meet, confer, and exchange ideas face to face. Now, there are alternatives superior in efficiency and cost – virtual meetings – and the CCP pandemic has established them front and center.

Other Clouds on The Air Transportation Horizon –Beyond the current snap back in traffic, a longer view for the airline industry may not be particularly comforting, unless it is viewed in the context of the new role of air travel as a communication channel. There are some serious issues – troubling issues – but the emerging shift in the geographic make up of the U.S. industrial and business base will deliver some surprising growth in some surprising regions.

But, let’s reach out and touch a couple of storm clouds.

Higher Fuel Costs. The Colonial Pipeline security fiasco has sent a strong message in regard to fuel costs based on current distribution channels. (Yes, it was a security failure, conceptually like 9/11, but without violence.) The supply system is vulnerable and fragile, and airlines will need to re-think fuel logistics to some degree.

Moonbeam Energy Planning. It needs to be stated. There are a phalanx of misguided, trendy policies coming out of Washington, which are guaranteed to spike the cost of jet-A, not to mention all forms of energy. The shutdown of the Keystone pipeline construction (particularly after the distribution vulnerabilities demonstrated by the Colonial affair) is not sound future planning. It’s part of a playbook that’s not going to get the USA over the goal line.

There is an open and clear attack on the programs that made the USA energy-independent for the first time in over half a century. In their place are schemes that encourage use of “alternative” and supposedly “sustainable” sources of energy, such as battery-electric options. The fact is that while there are no emissions from the tail pipes, that electric automobile or electric push-tug is the end product of a total system that is neither ecologically clean nor “sustainable.”

(We cover that point in the latest Aviation Unscripted video. Click at the end of the Insight to go there. True heresy.)

The Economy – Signs Are Not Going In The Right Direction. While the stock market may be bubbling along, a number of the indicators that affect how consumers use air travel can be taken as warning signals. Consumer confidence – a harbinger of air travel demand – plunged last month. Inflation – and media stories about inflation – are also front and center. At this point, the majority of consumer-related factors that support air service are in question, based on traditional metrics and planning methodologies. They no longer fully apply to the emerging, post CCP-Covid economy in the USA.

But There Is A Recovery – Regional & Focused. What our Airports:USA® forecasts are now indicating is actually strong redistribution of air service demand. Mid-size and even some smaller cities, particularly those with strong and growing economic foundations and a high quality of life, will be experiencing air travel growth, in some cases enormous growth.

We are not – repeat, not – referring to the lucky airports that see ULCC service enter. This type of traffic is separate and parallel to the economic-generated demand that will be accessed by the major network and semi-network carriers.

As we noted in our March 3 Aviation Unscripted video, there is now a migration of businesses seeking new venues. They are escaping to regions that do not demonstrate the major challenges seen last summer – and continuing today – at many major metro centers. We’d note that several weeks later, the Wall Street Journal came to similar conclusions.

It’s not a re-make of Exodus – there’s no economic Moses involved, and the Interstates aren’t choked with moving vans escaping New York City and other big metros. But it’s enough migration to deliver strong traffic demand to places like Boise, Colorado Springs, Ithaca, and the like. And, it’s not in future tense. It’s happening now.

We cover this dynamic literally on a daily basis with Airports:USA®. We’ll be soon sending out information regarding our new forecast subscription programs for airports and communities.

It’s a tool that until now, simply wasn’t available.

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And As For Believing The Consensus...

Again – we’re being told that if there’s no CO2 coming out of the tailpipe, that means all is green and “sustainable.”

Not necessarily so.

If you have not yet seen our Aviation Unscripted video on the subject, you may want to take a look. Over the decades, the powers-that-be, the media, and lots of groupie-like gadflies have periodically fed us official dogma about the latest unquestioned future trends.

Remember in the 1950s, for example it was the wonders of the atom that would change the world?

Today, there’s another whole set of future solutions, none of which should ever be questioned. But here’s a tidbit. All that electric ground equipment that airports are snapping up – the ones that have no emissions out of the tailpipe – are in a Colonial Pipeline-like danger. The supply that makes them move has a distantly similar vulnerability.

Oh, and this stuff about this equipment representing “sustainability” and green propulsion isn’t entirely accurate, at least in the total process of getting that tug to gate 23.

Click here for the video.

Summer Traffic Spike – It’s Restructuring. Not Recovery To Pre-CCP-Covid.

We’ve noted in the latest Touch & Go newsletter sent to our clients & friends that the now-in-progress spike in air passenger growth may be only a bubble on the way to a new role for air transportation in the USA.

Comparing 2021 Planned Capacity To 2019… As of today, the airline industry has not yet fully adjusted the schedule patterns for July and August… plus, it is highly optimistic that September will remain at 8% more seats offered than in 2019.

Clouds On The Horizon. It is logical to accept that June will be in the @80% range of what was offered in 2019. July, too. However, it is really optimistic to project that air traffic volumes will exceed 2019 by the 4^th quarter.

First, business traffic most likely will see no rebound to the pre-CCP-Covid levels. How much it will rebound will depend on the fundamental changes in the basic foundation of business communication systems that have been experienced in the last 12 months.

Second, it is an open question regarding the drivers of the summer travel spike. It may be a bubble of demand, or it may be the indication that in the future leisure demand will be a larger percentage of revenue opportunities for the airline industry. That would indicate more vulnerability to economic shifts that affect disposable income and investment income.

Finally, air travel is entirely dependent on available dollars – both personal and business. That’s factor which apparently nobody wants to consider right now.

Planed Economic Policies Are Not Encouraging. Let’s state the facts: The economic view from 30,000 feet up isn’t real encouraging. Virtually every economic policy coming out of Washington is based on wealth reduction (taxes) or wealth suppression (social experiments that deter free and open discussion of issues and are openly aimed at reduction in commerce.)  Then there are open trendy attacks on supply of fuel – prohibiting exploration and closing pipeline projects will only make travel – and the cost of living – more expensive.

This stuff does not encourage travel spending – particularly when higher taxes will ultimately eat up discretionary spending – regardless of usual political promises to the contrary.

It is understood that these conclusions might be politically incorrect, but it’s what’s on the table and it is clear and obvious.

The next four weeks will be very interesting – if bookings remain strong for post-Labor Day travel that will determine how rapidly we will attain “full” enplanements – this being air passenger traffic that the new economy will support.

Stay tuned.

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Another Sacred Tome Questioned

There is an increasing number of political and social areas that unfortunately are being relegated to the “not to be questioned” category, for fear of being pilloried or burned at the stake of consensus thinking.

There are things we mere mortals must not question for fear of being publicly exposed as a socially dangerous heretic.

In the early 1950s, “everybody knew” that atomic power and nuclear energy would deliver incredible economic benefits… nearly free electrical power… nearly free heat in cold regions… all sorts of magic. It was the dogma.

It even extended to official and nonsensical malarkey regarding the ease avoiding the dangers in the event of nuclear attack. Folks who attended grade school in the 1950s can remember “duck and cover” exercises in the classroom. Simple. If you see a nuclear flash, kids, just duck under your desk. And, if you’re outside, just cover yourself with anything – even a newspaper – to be safe.

Not kidding. The government actually produced cutesy public service announcement films about this stuff. Atomic power was the unquestioned future, and indeed a copy of the financial section of the New York Times was sufficient to ward off being turned into a crispy critter if the Commies attacked.

‘Course, in the case of a real nuclear attack this would likely delay your journey to the Pearly Gates by at least two to three milliseconds.

Today, we still have a range of sacred dogmas that are not to be questioned. Those who do so are immediately and confidently attacked as “non-believers” or worse. The masses are tacitly instructed to do so, automatically.

Okay. We’ve now stepped over the line, and possibly stepped into a pile of accepted dogma.

Last week’s Aviation Unscripted has dared to discuss the concept of “sustainability” in regard to at least one accepted “green” approach to the future. The reality is that some of the accepted “green” alternatives are anything but – and are socially damaging.

We included this in our last Touch & Go, so if you missed it there click here to take a factual gander at one “accepted” green solution that is anything but.

If you haven’t viewed it, click here. 

Leadership means questioning the norm. That’s not what’s going on with a lot of “sustainability” assumptions.

The Magic 18 Inches of Health Protection

Never has seat 21E had the importance and health benefits it does today. It’s a middle seat, and the shamans in Washington are hyping it like they just discovered radium.

Last week, the Center For Disease Control (CDC) issued a new study, urging airlines to block middle seats to stop the potential spread of the CCP-Covid virus in airplane cabins.

Impressively, the CDC noted that this move could reduce the risk by over 50%. Wonderful  advice, particularly since there has been essentially zip evidence of CCP-Covid spread in  airplane cabins.

Naturally, however, the media took this CDC study and  ran with it like Zeus himself had just delivered it by express lightning bolt.

Nobody seemed to question the CDC’s conclusions. One major network radio outlet was furious that we dared suggest that the CDC was claiming to reduce something that’s been shown not to be a risk in the first place. Don’t want to hear that… truth doesn’t matter to certain parts of the media when it might shed light on bureaucratic political correctness.

This is just another in a long line of wanderings by the CDC. It is reprehensible in that it implies that there is a very real and present threat in airplane cabins – one that has been proven not to exist.

Sure, that 18 inches of middle seat separation is great protection – especially after passengers crawl over each other when one needs to get to the window seat and are next to each other stuffing things into the overhead.

This CDC magnum opus isn’t science. But it is consistent with a lot of the political Kabuki theater that has attached itself to the bureaucratic Washington response to the CCP-Covid pandemic like barnacles on a tramp steamship.

Back in February a year ago, we were assured by the various “experts” and pandering politicians that it was okay to take a cruise, or go to a movie, or participate in group activities… even though it was clear that the CCP-Covid was spreading rapidly in China, Europe or elsewhere. We were advised back then that wearing a mask was not needed or even  advisable.

Now the very same sources are prancing around, telling us that we should wear not one but two masks for safety. The media buys into that as obediently as they have this latest CDC dictum.

Nobody in the media asks what the specs for the “masks” need to be. Two N95s? Two plastic hoods? Two paper masks imported from factories run by  the same criminal government  who started this pandemic?  Two soiled  hankies?

Yup, all of the above are equally fine. It’s “science,” don’t ya know. Not to be questioned.

If looked at honestly and without the pandering political correctness much of the media worships, this stuff fails to meet the standards of a half-naked witch doctor in some far-off jungle.

See, this is more about proving obedience to the “authorities” than health. Sort of like a religious requirement to  cover one’s face to show subservience.

The latest CDC “study” is more of the same.

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The “Infrastructure” Bill:

Airport & Aviation In The Long-Term Crosshairs

France has just passed a law prohibiting air service between any two points where rail service is less than 2.5 hours. Germany is on the same path.

See, it’s all about reducing carbon emissions… regardless of other issues, or even the economic fallout that may result. Or even if it will make any real difference. It’s part of the sacred environmental scripture… air travel is evil. Choo-choo trains love the environment and will protect the polar bears and snake-darters and endangered lizard species in the Amazon rain forest.

Back home, there are clowns inside the Marble Playpen in Washington that are likely looking at trying to do the same in the USA… environmental jihadists who need no facts or truth to spoil their dogma.

Only problem is that the USA does not have any such rail system.

Yet.

But they’re fixin’ to do something about that little problem.

We touched on this last week. But it’s important that every sector of the aviation industry be fully aware that this “infrastructure” bill leaves airports out in the cold. And could be the start on the path of bureaucrats dictating how we must travel in the future.

Now, to be clear, this legislation has about as much to do with infrastructure as Karl Marx had with the Vatican Council. But it is obvious that airports and aviation are not at the table in this pork-fest.

In the current Aviation Unscripted video, we discuss how the bill will slobber tax money all over building trendy new “high-speed” passenger rail across the nation. It’s trendy. It’s environmentally superior. (A lie, but truth isn’t a factor in the dogma.)

This is more than just constructing rail beds. It’s part of a long-term plan to hamstring commerce based on crackpot but politically-accepted transportation planning.

Click here. It is critical that everyone in aviation be able to discuss this matter factually.

It does affect the future of our airport system – and the national economy.

Traffic Forecast – Continued Strength
But 2019 Passenger Levels A Long Way Off

The latest Airports:USA® long-term forecast indicates just under 620 million enplanements for 2021.

Based on known and expected airline capacity and fleet trends, the latest Airports:USA® forecasts indicate 2021 on track for just under 620 million enplanements.

This tracks with current rates of screening reported by the TSA, which has been in the 1 million to 1.5 million level each day.

Currently, the average passenger journey generates 1.4 enplanements, which is the result of connecting itineraries. This then would indicate that the 620 million enplanement figure is on target.

The challenge is that this figure is well short of the 960 million experienced in 2019, and even further short of what was expected, pre-CCP Covid, for 2021. Based on the forecasts and traffic trends expected, year 2021 was projected by Airports:USA to be approximately 1.15 billion enplanements.

That means we are looking at a very different air transportation picture, and one that represents a much-reduced set of revenue streams for all sectors of the aviation industry. The planning that was in place in March of 2020 has in many aspects been made obsolete.

Obviously, the picture is mixed. Some regions are in line for very strong enplanement growth, based on the airline industry adjusting to the new consumer and business base.
What needs to be grasped is that there is no “rebound” – the reality is that we are experiencing traffic adjusting to the fact that air transportation as a communication modality is changing, both in regard to leisure and business applications.

How this will manifest is based on very different consumer and economic drivers than the ones in place in 2019. Understanding these emerging dynamics will be critical to revising airport Master Plans and revenue projections.

Airports:USA® is the only independent source of traffic and trend forecasts for the industry. Updated constantly, it provides clients with the insights and perspectives that illuminate how air transportation will evolve in the future.

Log on to www.AirportsUSA.com and then give us a call and we can set up a quick demo of how we can give you a clear planning tool for the future.
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In This Week’s Aviation Unscripted Video
Another Pandemic – An Economic Pandemic – May Be Coming

Not to be a Kassandra, but we may be in for another set of economic torpedoes later this year… maybe sooner.

Be sure to join us this Thursday, April 8, for the latest Aviation Unscripted video, published on that channel on Rumble.com. We have some very sobering insight regarding some possibly near-term shenanigans on the part of the un-elected hoodlum system running China.

Understanding the events and geo-political issues that are unfolding in other areas of the globe is essential to contingency planning. This is one contingency that might land in our laps and put air traffic and the economy back on the skids.

The CCP-Covid pandemic was a health-related scourge that was inflicted first on the Chinese people and shortly thereafter on the entire world.

Unfortunately, the mobsters running China may be in line to do a repeat, but this time it will be an economic pandemic.

Political trends in China are very dangerous. Various factions are going to the mattresses in power struggles regarding the current leader, Xi Jinping. It is just like the mafia on a huge scale… they are all members, but the infighting between “families” portends danger for the entire globe.

Dictators in trouble tend to take actions that are aimed at rallying the citizens and neutralizing opposition from political enemies. In this case, what Xi Jinping may pursue will do to the global economy what his incompetent handling of the Covid virus did to global health.

To access the Aviation Unscripted video channel, click here… and be sure to log on this Thursday and get the facts. Things could change very quickly in the months ahead.

Here’s one hint. Taiwan.