Monday Insights: Ahead of The Curve

Monday, November 18, 2024

Pre-Observations For 2025

Some Random Points To Ponder.

An Airline Sector Constricts. The (former) ULCC segment will continue to shrink capacity. The main foundation of this sector – “ultra low” costs – is evaporating rapidly. That means the ability to further mine discretionary leisure traffic will continue to atrophy. Attempts to break out into mainline traffic capture are iffy at best due to low frequency and low brand identity. The NK bankruptcy is not in a market bubble.

Warning: International Upheavals. While the industry may be focused on the effects of what’s going on in the Middle East and in the Ukraine, the real lit-fuse to chaos is in China. Or, the potential for military action initiated by the criminals running China. Some reading of the tea leaves indicates that the current leader, Xi Jinping, is losing grip on some sectors of his Mafia-like party. Military action, even if just at Nationalist-held (Taiwan) Kinmen (Google it, if you must) will shatter Trans-Pac air demand.Continue reading→

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